Meteorological fluctuations define long-term crop yield patterns in conventional and organic production systems

Variability in meteorological patterns presents significant challenges to crop production consistency and yield stability. Meteorological influences on corn and soybean grain yields were analyzed over an 18-year period at a long-term experiment in Beltsville, Maryland, U.S.A., comparing conventional and organic management systems. Precipitation and temperature variables explained much of the yield variability, with precipitation and heat stress during the late vegetative and early reproductive phases of crop growth accounting for the majority of yield variability in all crops and management systems. Crop yields under conventional and organic management followed similar periodic patterns, but yields were 31% and 20% lower in organic than conventional corn and soybean, respectively. The efficiency of grain yield per unit precipitation was higher under conventional than organic management, highlighting the importance of crop management for optimizing production in response to meteorological variability. Periodic yield and precipitation patterns did not consistently align with global meteorological cycles such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation.