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Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts
Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2017
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5431058/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28465575 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01309-y |
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author | García Molinos, J. Burrows, M. T. Poloczanska, E. S. |
author_facet | García Molinos, J. Burrows, M. T. Poloczanska, E. S. |
author_sort | García Molinos, J. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5431058 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-54310582017-05-16 Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts García Molinos, J. Burrows, M. T. Poloczanska, E. S. Sci Rep Article Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors. Nature Publishing Group UK 2017-05-02 /pmc/articles/PMC5431058/ /pubmed/28465575 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01309-y Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article García Molinos, J. Burrows, M. T. Poloczanska, E. S. Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts |
title | Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts |
title_full | Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts |
title_fullStr | Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts |
title_full_unstemmed | Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts |
title_short | Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts |
title_sort | ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5431058/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28465575 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-01309-y |
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