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A multispecies dependent double‐observer model: A new method for estimating multispecies abundance

Conservation of biological communities requires accurate estimates of abundance for multiple species. Recent advances in estimating abundance of multiple species, such as Bayesian multispecies N‐mixture models, account for multiple sources of variation, including detection error. However, false‐posi...

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Autores principales: Golding, Jessie D., Nowak, J. Joshua, Dreitz, Victoria J.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5433993/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28515878
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2946
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author Golding, Jessie D.
Nowak, J. Joshua
Dreitz, Victoria J.
author_facet Golding, Jessie D.
Nowak, J. Joshua
Dreitz, Victoria J.
author_sort Golding, Jessie D.
collection PubMed
description Conservation of biological communities requires accurate estimates of abundance for multiple species. Recent advances in estimating abundance of multiple species, such as Bayesian multispecies N‐mixture models, account for multiple sources of variation, including detection error. However, false‐positive errors (misidentification or double counts), which are prevalent in multispecies data sets, remain largely unaddressed. The dependent‐double observer (DDO) method is an emerging method that both accounts for detection error and is suggested to reduce the occurrence of false positives because it relies on two observers working collaboratively to identify individuals. To date, the DDO method has not been combined with advantages of multispecies N‐mixture models. Here, we derive an extension of a multispecies N‐mixture model using the DDO survey method to create a multispecies dependent double‐observer abundance model (MDAM). The MDAM uses a hierarchical framework to account for biological and observational processes in a statistically consistent framework while using the accurate observation data from the DDO survey method. We demonstrate that the MDAM accurately estimates abundance of multiple species with simulated and real multispecies data sets. Simulations showed that the model provides both precise and accurate abundance estimates, with average credible interval coverage across 100 repeated simulations of 94.5% for abundance estimates and 92.5% for detection estimates. In addition, 92.2% of abundance estimates had a mean absolute percent error between 0% and 20%, with a mean of 7.7%. We present the MDAM as an important step forward in expanding the applicability of the DDO method to a multispecies setting. Previous implementation of the DDO method suggests the MDAM can be applied to a broad array of biological communities. We suggest that researchers interested in assessing biological communities consider the MDAM as a tool for deriving accurate, multispecies abundance estimates.
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spelling pubmed-54339932017-05-17 A multispecies dependent double‐observer model: A new method for estimating multispecies abundance Golding, Jessie D. Nowak, J. Joshua Dreitz, Victoria J. Ecol Evol Original Research Conservation of biological communities requires accurate estimates of abundance for multiple species. Recent advances in estimating abundance of multiple species, such as Bayesian multispecies N‐mixture models, account for multiple sources of variation, including detection error. However, false‐positive errors (misidentification or double counts), which are prevalent in multispecies data sets, remain largely unaddressed. The dependent‐double observer (DDO) method is an emerging method that both accounts for detection error and is suggested to reduce the occurrence of false positives because it relies on two observers working collaboratively to identify individuals. To date, the DDO method has not been combined with advantages of multispecies N‐mixture models. Here, we derive an extension of a multispecies N‐mixture model using the DDO survey method to create a multispecies dependent double‐observer abundance model (MDAM). The MDAM uses a hierarchical framework to account for biological and observational processes in a statistically consistent framework while using the accurate observation data from the DDO survey method. We demonstrate that the MDAM accurately estimates abundance of multiple species with simulated and real multispecies data sets. Simulations showed that the model provides both precise and accurate abundance estimates, with average credible interval coverage across 100 repeated simulations of 94.5% for abundance estimates and 92.5% for detection estimates. In addition, 92.2% of abundance estimates had a mean absolute percent error between 0% and 20%, with a mean of 7.7%. We present the MDAM as an important step forward in expanding the applicability of the DDO method to a multispecies setting. Previous implementation of the DDO method suggests the MDAM can be applied to a broad array of biological communities. We suggest that researchers interested in assessing biological communities consider the MDAM as a tool for deriving accurate, multispecies abundance estimates. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2017-04-04 /pmc/articles/PMC5433993/ /pubmed/28515878 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2946 Text en © 2017 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Original Research
Golding, Jessie D.
Nowak, J. Joshua
Dreitz, Victoria J.
A multispecies dependent double‐observer model: A new method for estimating multispecies abundance
title A multispecies dependent double‐observer model: A new method for estimating multispecies abundance
title_full A multispecies dependent double‐observer model: A new method for estimating multispecies abundance
title_fullStr A multispecies dependent double‐observer model: A new method for estimating multispecies abundance
title_full_unstemmed A multispecies dependent double‐observer model: A new method for estimating multispecies abundance
title_short A multispecies dependent double‐observer model: A new method for estimating multispecies abundance
title_sort multispecies dependent double‐observer model: a new method for estimating multispecies abundance
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5433993/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28515878
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2946
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