An integrated risk predictor for pulmonary nodules

It is estimated that over 1.5 million lung nodules are detected annually in the United States. Most of these are benign but frequently undergo invasive and costly procedures to rule out malignancy. A risk predictor that can accurately differentiate benign and malignant lung nodules could be used to more efficiently route benign lung nodules to non-invasive observation by CT surveillance and route malignant lung nodules to invasive procedures. The majority of risk predictors developed to date are based exclusively on clinical risk factors, imaging technology or molecular markers. Assessed here are the relative performances of previously reported clinical risk factors and proteomic molecular markers for assessing cancer risk in lung nodules. From this analysis an integrated model incorporating clinical risk factors and proteomic molecular markers is developed and its performance assessed on a subset of 222 lung nodules, between 8mm and 20mm in diameter, collected in a previously reported prospective study. In this analysis it is found that the molecular marker is most predictive. However, the integration of clinical and molecular markers is superior to both clinical and molecular markers separately. Clinical Trial Registration: Registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01752101).