Longitudinal evaluation of criteria for subjective cognitive decline and preclinical Alzheimer's disease in a memory clinic sample

INTRODUCTION: Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) and biomarker-based “at-risk” concepts such as “preclinical” Alzheimer's disease (AD) have been developed to predict AD dementia before objective cognitive impairment is detectable. We longitudinally evaluated cognitive outcome when using these classifications. METHODS: Memory clinic patients (n = 235) were classified as SCD (n = 122): subtle cognitive decline (n = 36) and mild cognitive impairment (n = 77) and subsequently subclassified into SCDplus and National Institute on Aging–Alzheimer's Association (NIA-AA) stages 0 to 3. Mean (standard deviation) follow-up time was 48 (35) months. Proportion declining cognitively and prognostic accuracy for cognitive decline was calculated for all classifications. RESULTS: Among SCDplus patients, 43% to 48% declined cognitively. Among NIA-AA stage 1 to 3 patients, 50% to 100% declined cognitively. The highest positive likelihood ratios (+LRs) for subsequent cognitive decline (+LR 6.3), dementia (+LR 3.4), and AD dementia (+LR 6.5) were found for NIA-AA stage 2. DISCUSSION: In a memory clinic setting, NIA-AA stage 2 seems to be the most successful classification in predicting objective cognitive decline, dementia, and AD dementia.