Depth of response is a significant predictor for long-term outcome in advanced gastric cancer patients treated with trastuzumab

PURPOSE: We aimed to determine and compare the predictive values of depth of response (DpR) and early tumor shrinkage (ETS) on long-term outcomes in gastric cancer patients treated with trastuzumab. RESULTS: From a total of 368 computed tomography examinations, DpR and ETS were evaluated. DpR was a significant tumor-size metric in predicting PFS and OS, and showed better discriminatory ability (higher Cτ indices, 0.6957 for PFS; 0.7191 for OS) than ETS. DpR ≥ 45% (vs. < 45%) was the optimal cutoff value, as it was best able to identify patients with longer PFS (median 9.0 vs. 6.3 months, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.608; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.335 to 1.104; P = 0.102) and OS (median 23.5 vs. 13.1 months, HR = 0.441; 95% CI: 0.203 to 0.955; P = 0.038). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Sixty-one gastric cancer patients who received first-line trastuzumab-based chemotherapy were assessed for DpR and ETS. We employed Kaplan-Meier estimates, log-rank tests, Cox proportional hazards regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristics, and Youden's J index to evaluate and determine cutoff values of DpR and ETS as predictors of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). CONCLUSIONS: DpR and ETS were significant predictors of long-term outcomes in gastric cancer patients treated with first-line trastuzumab. Validation in prospective trials with larger patient populations is needed.