Cargando…
A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application
Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of...
Autores principales: | , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2017
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5462412/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28591188 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0178789 |
_version_ | 1783242510085128192 |
---|---|
author | Zhang, Yongsheng Yao, Enjian Wei, Heng Zheng, Kangning |
author_facet | Zhang, Yongsheng Yao, Enjian Wei, Heng Zheng, Kangning |
author_sort | Zhang, Yongsheng |
collection | PubMed |
description | Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5462412 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-54624122017-06-22 A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application Zhang, Yongsheng Yao, Enjian Wei, Heng Zheng, Kangning PLoS One Research Article Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. Public Library of Science 2017-06-07 /pmc/articles/PMC5462412/ /pubmed/28591188 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0178789 Text en © 2017 Zhang et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Zhang, Yongsheng Yao, Enjian Wei, Heng Zheng, Kangning A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application |
title | A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application |
title_full | A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application |
title_fullStr | A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application |
title_full_unstemmed | A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application |
title_short | A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application |
title_sort | constrained multinomial probit route choice model in the metro network: formulation, estimation and application |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5462412/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28591188 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0178789 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT zhangyongsheng aconstrainedmultinomialprobitroutechoicemodelinthemetronetworkformulationestimationandapplication AT yaoenjian aconstrainedmultinomialprobitroutechoicemodelinthemetronetworkformulationestimationandapplication AT weiheng aconstrainedmultinomialprobitroutechoicemodelinthemetronetworkformulationestimationandapplication AT zhengkangning aconstrainedmultinomialprobitroutechoicemodelinthemetronetworkformulationestimationandapplication AT zhangyongsheng constrainedmultinomialprobitroutechoicemodelinthemetronetworkformulationestimationandapplication AT yaoenjian constrainedmultinomialprobitroutechoicemodelinthemetronetworkformulationestimationandapplication AT weiheng constrainedmultinomialprobitroutechoicemodelinthemetronetworkformulationestimationandapplication AT zhengkangning constrainedmultinomialprobitroutechoicemodelinthemetronetworkformulationestimationandapplication |