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Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20(th) and 21(st) century

Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860–2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models...

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Autores principales: Basha, Ghouse, Kishore, P., Ratnam, M. Venkat, Jayaraman, A., Agha Kouchak, Amir, Ouarda, Taha B. M. J., Velicogna, Isabella
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5462738/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28592810
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02130-3
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author Basha, Ghouse
Kishore, P.
Ratnam, M. Venkat
Jayaraman, A.
Agha Kouchak, Amir
Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.
Velicogna, Isabella
author_facet Basha, Ghouse
Kishore, P.
Ratnam, M. Venkat
Jayaraman, A.
Agha Kouchak, Amir
Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.
Velicogna, Isabella
author_sort Basha, Ghouse
collection PubMed
description Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860–2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20(th) century and projections during the 21(st) century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20(th) century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5 K by the end of the 21(st) century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21(st) century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080–2099 relative to a base period of 1986–2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved.
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spelling pubmed-54627382017-06-08 Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20(th) and 21(st) century Basha, Ghouse Kishore, P. Ratnam, M. Venkat Jayaraman, A. Agha Kouchak, Amir Ouarda, Taha B. M. J. Velicogna, Isabella Sci Rep Article Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860–2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20(th) century and projections during the 21(st) century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20(th) century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5 K by the end of the 21(st) century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21(st) century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080–2099 relative to a base period of 1986–2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved. Nature Publishing Group UK 2017-06-07 /pmc/articles/PMC5462738/ /pubmed/28592810 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02130-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Basha, Ghouse
Kishore, P.
Ratnam, M. Venkat
Jayaraman, A.
Agha Kouchak, Amir
Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.
Velicogna, Isabella
Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20(th) and 21(st) century
title Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20(th) and 21(st) century
title_full Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20(th) and 21(st) century
title_fullStr Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20(th) and 21(st) century
title_full_unstemmed Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20(th) and 21(st) century
title_short Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20(th) and 21(st) century
title_sort historical and projected surface temperature over india during the 20(th) and 21(st) century
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5462738/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28592810
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-02130-3
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