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Strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over East Asia and Northern Europe associated with super El Niño events

East Asia experienced a record-breaking cold event during the 2015/16 boreal winter, with pronounced impacts on livelihood in the region. We find that this large-scale cold spell can be attributed to the concurrent super El Niño event in the tropical Pacific. Our analysis reveals that all super El N...

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Autores principales: Geng, Xin, Zhang, Wenjun, Stuecker, Malte F., Jin, Fei-Fei
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5476682/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28630446
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-03977-2
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author Geng, Xin
Zhang, Wenjun
Stuecker, Malte F.
Jin, Fei-Fei
author_facet Geng, Xin
Zhang, Wenjun
Stuecker, Malte F.
Jin, Fei-Fei
author_sort Geng, Xin
collection PubMed
description East Asia experienced a record-breaking cold event during the 2015/16 boreal winter, with pronounced impacts on livelihood in the region. We find that this large-scale cold spell can be attributed to the concurrent super El Niño event in the tropical Pacific. Our analysis reveals that all super El Niño winters (1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16) were accompanied by a rapid sub-seasonal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase reversal from a positive to a negative state during early January, which was largely caused by the interaction of these super El Niño events with the subtropical jet annual cycle. The NAO/AO phase transition leads to a rapidly strengthened Siberian High, which favors southward intrusions of cold air to East Asia and thus causes severe local cooling. Similar cold spells can also be detected over Northern Europe associated with the fast sub-seasonal NAO/AO phase reversal. Due to the weaker amplitude of the ENSO forcing, these sub-seasonal atmospheric responses cannot be detected for moderate El Niño events. The super El Niño associated sub-seasonal signal of the East Asian and Northern Europe wintertime temperature responses carries important implications for future predictability of regional extreme events.
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spelling pubmed-54766822017-06-23 Strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over East Asia and Northern Europe associated with super El Niño events Geng, Xin Zhang, Wenjun Stuecker, Malte F. Jin, Fei-Fei Sci Rep Article East Asia experienced a record-breaking cold event during the 2015/16 boreal winter, with pronounced impacts on livelihood in the region. We find that this large-scale cold spell can be attributed to the concurrent super El Niño event in the tropical Pacific. Our analysis reveals that all super El Niño winters (1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16) were accompanied by a rapid sub-seasonal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) phase reversal from a positive to a negative state during early January, which was largely caused by the interaction of these super El Niño events with the subtropical jet annual cycle. The NAO/AO phase transition leads to a rapidly strengthened Siberian High, which favors southward intrusions of cold air to East Asia and thus causes severe local cooling. Similar cold spells can also be detected over Northern Europe associated with the fast sub-seasonal NAO/AO phase reversal. Due to the weaker amplitude of the ENSO forcing, these sub-seasonal atmospheric responses cannot be detected for moderate El Niño events. The super El Niño associated sub-seasonal signal of the East Asian and Northern Europe wintertime temperature responses carries important implications for future predictability of regional extreme events. Nature Publishing Group UK 2017-06-19 /pmc/articles/PMC5476682/ /pubmed/28630446 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-03977-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Geng, Xin
Zhang, Wenjun
Stuecker, Malte F.
Jin, Fei-Fei
Strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over East Asia and Northern Europe associated with super El Niño events
title Strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over East Asia and Northern Europe associated with super El Niño events
title_full Strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over East Asia and Northern Europe associated with super El Niño events
title_fullStr Strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over East Asia and Northern Europe associated with super El Niño events
title_full_unstemmed Strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over East Asia and Northern Europe associated with super El Niño events
title_short Strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over East Asia and Northern Europe associated with super El Niño events
title_sort strong sub-seasonal wintertime cooling over east asia and northern europe associated with super el niño events
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5476682/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28630446
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-03977-2
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