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Estimating and interpreting migration of Amazonian forests using spatially implicit and semi‐explicit neutral models

With many sophisticated methods available for estimating migration, ecologists face the difficult decision of choosing for their specific line of work. Here we test and compare several methods, performing sanity and robustness tests, applying to large‐scale data and discussing the results and interp...

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Autores principales: Pos, Edwin, Guevara Andino, Juan Ernesto, Sabatier, Daniel, Molino, Jean‐François, Pitman, Nigel, Mogollón, Hugo, Neill, David, Cerón, Carlos, Rivas‐Torres, Gonzalo, Di Fiore, Anthony, Thomas, Raquel, Tirado, Milton, Young, Kenneth R., Wang, Ophelia, Sierra, Rodrigo, García‐Villacorta, Roosevelt, Zagt, Roderick, Palacios Cuenca, Walter, Aulestia, Milton, ter Steege, Hans
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5478059/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28649338
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2930
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author Pos, Edwin
Guevara Andino, Juan Ernesto
Sabatier, Daniel
Molino, Jean‐François
Pitman, Nigel
Mogollón, Hugo
Neill, David
Cerón, Carlos
Rivas‐Torres, Gonzalo
Di Fiore, Anthony
Thomas, Raquel
Tirado, Milton
Young, Kenneth R.
Wang, Ophelia
Sierra, Rodrigo
García‐Villacorta, Roosevelt
Zagt, Roderick
Palacios Cuenca, Walter
Aulestia, Milton
ter Steege, Hans
author_facet Pos, Edwin
Guevara Andino, Juan Ernesto
Sabatier, Daniel
Molino, Jean‐François
Pitman, Nigel
Mogollón, Hugo
Neill, David
Cerón, Carlos
Rivas‐Torres, Gonzalo
Di Fiore, Anthony
Thomas, Raquel
Tirado, Milton
Young, Kenneth R.
Wang, Ophelia
Sierra, Rodrigo
García‐Villacorta, Roosevelt
Zagt, Roderick
Palacios Cuenca, Walter
Aulestia, Milton
ter Steege, Hans
author_sort Pos, Edwin
collection PubMed
description With many sophisticated methods available for estimating migration, ecologists face the difficult decision of choosing for their specific line of work. Here we test and compare several methods, performing sanity and robustness tests, applying to large‐scale data and discussing the results and interpretation. Five methods were selected to compare for their ability to estimate migration from spatially implicit and semi‐explicit simulations based on three large‐scale field datasets from South America (Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and Ecuador). Space was incorporated semi‐explicitly by a discrete probability mass function for local recruitment, migration from adjacent plots or from a metacommunity. Most methods were able to accurately estimate migration from spatially implicit simulations. For spatially semi‐explicit simulations, estimation was shown to be the additive effect of migration from adjacent plots and the metacommunity. It was only accurate when migration from the metacommunity outweighed that of adjacent plots, discrimination, however, proved to be impossible. We show that migration should be considered more an approximation of the resemblance between communities and the summed regional species pool. Application of migration estimates to simulate field datasets did show reasonably good fits and indicated consistent differences between sets in comparison with earlier studies. We conclude that estimates of migration using these methods are more an approximation of the homogenization among local communities over time rather than a direct measurement of migration and hence have a direct relationship with beta diversity. As betadiversity is the result of many (non)‐neutral processes, we have to admit that migration as estimated in a spatial explicit world encompasses not only direct migration but is an ecological aggregate of these processes. The parameter m of neutral models then appears more as an emerging property revealed by neutral theory instead of being an effective mechanistic parameter and spatially implicit models should be rejected as an approximation of forest dynamics.
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spelling pubmed-54780592017-06-23 Estimating and interpreting migration of Amazonian forests using spatially implicit and semi‐explicit neutral models Pos, Edwin Guevara Andino, Juan Ernesto Sabatier, Daniel Molino, Jean‐François Pitman, Nigel Mogollón, Hugo Neill, David Cerón, Carlos Rivas‐Torres, Gonzalo Di Fiore, Anthony Thomas, Raquel Tirado, Milton Young, Kenneth R. Wang, Ophelia Sierra, Rodrigo García‐Villacorta, Roosevelt Zagt, Roderick Palacios Cuenca, Walter Aulestia, Milton ter Steege, Hans Ecol Evol Original Research With many sophisticated methods available for estimating migration, ecologists face the difficult decision of choosing for their specific line of work. Here we test and compare several methods, performing sanity and robustness tests, applying to large‐scale data and discussing the results and interpretation. Five methods were selected to compare for their ability to estimate migration from spatially implicit and semi‐explicit simulations based on three large‐scale field datasets from South America (Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and Ecuador). Space was incorporated semi‐explicitly by a discrete probability mass function for local recruitment, migration from adjacent plots or from a metacommunity. Most methods were able to accurately estimate migration from spatially implicit simulations. For spatially semi‐explicit simulations, estimation was shown to be the additive effect of migration from adjacent plots and the metacommunity. It was only accurate when migration from the metacommunity outweighed that of adjacent plots, discrimination, however, proved to be impossible. We show that migration should be considered more an approximation of the resemblance between communities and the summed regional species pool. Application of migration estimates to simulate field datasets did show reasonably good fits and indicated consistent differences between sets in comparison with earlier studies. We conclude that estimates of migration using these methods are more an approximation of the homogenization among local communities over time rather than a direct measurement of migration and hence have a direct relationship with beta diversity. As betadiversity is the result of many (non)‐neutral processes, we have to admit that migration as estimated in a spatial explicit world encompasses not only direct migration but is an ecological aggregate of these processes. The parameter m of neutral models then appears more as an emerging property revealed by neutral theory instead of being an effective mechanistic parameter and spatially implicit models should be rejected as an approximation of forest dynamics. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2017-05-05 /pmc/articles/PMC5478059/ /pubmed/28649338 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2930 Text en © 2017 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Original Research
Pos, Edwin
Guevara Andino, Juan Ernesto
Sabatier, Daniel
Molino, Jean‐François
Pitman, Nigel
Mogollón, Hugo
Neill, David
Cerón, Carlos
Rivas‐Torres, Gonzalo
Di Fiore, Anthony
Thomas, Raquel
Tirado, Milton
Young, Kenneth R.
Wang, Ophelia
Sierra, Rodrigo
García‐Villacorta, Roosevelt
Zagt, Roderick
Palacios Cuenca, Walter
Aulestia, Milton
ter Steege, Hans
Estimating and interpreting migration of Amazonian forests using spatially implicit and semi‐explicit neutral models
title Estimating and interpreting migration of Amazonian forests using spatially implicit and semi‐explicit neutral models
title_full Estimating and interpreting migration of Amazonian forests using spatially implicit and semi‐explicit neutral models
title_fullStr Estimating and interpreting migration of Amazonian forests using spatially implicit and semi‐explicit neutral models
title_full_unstemmed Estimating and interpreting migration of Amazonian forests using spatially implicit and semi‐explicit neutral models
title_short Estimating and interpreting migration of Amazonian forests using spatially implicit and semi‐explicit neutral models
title_sort estimating and interpreting migration of amazonian forests using spatially implicit and semi‐explicit neutral models
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5478059/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28649338
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2930
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