Spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland aboveground biomass on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on validated MODIS NDVI

Spatiotemporal dynamics of aboveground biomass (AGB) is a fundamental problem for grassland environmental management on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data can feasibly be used to estimate AGB at large scales, and their precise validation is necessary to utilize them effectively. In our study, the clip-harvest method was used at 64 plots in QTP grasslands to obtain actual AGB values, and a handheld hyperspectral spectrometer was used to calculate field-measured NDVI to validate MODIS NDVI. Based on the models between NDVI and AGB, AGB dynamics trends during 2000–2012 were analyzed. The results showed that the AGB in QTP grasslands increased during the study period, with 70% of the grasslands undergoing increases mainly in the Qinghai Province. Also, the meadow showed a larger increasing trend than steppe. Future AGB dynamic trends were also investigated using a combined analysis of the slope values and the Hurst exponent. The results showed high sustainability of AGB dynamics trends after the study period. Predictions indicate 60% of the steppe and meadow grasslands would continue to increase in AGB, while 25% of the grasslands would remain in degradation, with most of them distributing in Tibet.