Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Samoa over 1978–2013

OBJECTIVES: This study estimates type 2 diabetes (T2DM) incidence in Samoans aged 25–64 years from sequential, irregularly spaced, cross-sectional population prevalence surveys. METHODS: T2DM prevalence from eight population surveys conducted over 1978–2013 (n = 12,516) was adjusted for census region, sex, and 5-year age group to the nearest previous census. Annual T2DM incidence was calculated from adjusted prevalences (by sex), using birth cohorts constructed from age-period matrices. Projections of T2DM incidence to 2020 were estimated, based on various scenarios of population weight change using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Over 1978–2013, T2DM incidence was estimated to increase from 1.12 to 8.44 per 1000 person-years in men and from 2.55 to 8.04 per 1000 in women. Based on regression modeling, if mean population weight was stabilized from 2013, absolute incidence reductions of 0.9 per 1000 person-years (7% lower) are predicted in 2020, compared to the current period trend in weight gain. CONCLUSIONS: T2DM incidence can be calculated from irregularly conducted population risk factor surveys which may be useful in developing countries with limited resources. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00038-017-0961-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.