Timing of delivery in a high-risk obstetric population: a clinical prediction model

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of antenatal corticosteroid treatment for women with threatened preterm birth depends on timely administration within 7 days before delivery. We modelled the probability of delivery within 7 days of admission to hospital among women presenting with threatened preterm birth, using routinely collected clinical characteristics. METHODS: Data from the Canadian Perinatal Network (CPN) were used, 2005–11, including women admitted to hospital with preterm labour, preterm pre-labour rupture of membranes, short cervix without contractions, or dilated cervix or prolapsed membranes without contractions at preterm gestation. Women with fetal anomaly, intrauterine fetal demise, twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome, and quadruplets were excluded. Logistic regression was undertaken to create a predictive model that was assessed for its calibration capacity, stratification ability, and classification accuracy (ROC curve). RESULTS: We included 3012 women admitted at 24–28 weeks gestation, or readmitted at up to 34 weeks gestation, to 16 tertiary-care CPN hospitals. Of these, 1473 (48.9%) delivered within 7 days of admission. Significant predictors of early delivery included maternal age, parity, gestational age at admission, smoking, preterm labour, prolapsed membranes, preterm pre-labour rupture of membranes, and antepartum haemorrhage. The area under the ROC curve was 0.724 (95% CI 0.706–0.742). CONCLUSION: We propose a useful tool to improve prediction of delivery within 7 days after admission among women with threatened preterm birth. This information is important for optimal corticosteroid treatment. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12884-017-1390-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.