Trajectories of risky drinking around the time of statutory retirement: a longitudinal latent class analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Life transitions such as retirement may influence alcohol consumption, but only a few studies have described this using longitudinal data. We identified patterns and predictors of risky drinking around the time of retirement. DESIGN: A cohort study assessing trajectories and predictors of risky drinking among employees entering statutory retirement between 2000 and 2011. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5805 men and women from the Finnish Public Sector study who responded to questions on alcohol consumption one to three times prior to (w(−3), w(−2), w(−1)), and one to three times after (w(+1), w(+2), w(+3)) retirement. MEASUREMENTS: We assessed trajectories of risky drinking (> 24 units per week among men, > 16 units among women, or an extreme drinking occasion during past year) from pre‐ to post‐retirement, as well as predictors of each alcohol consumption trajectory. FINDINGS: Three trajectories were identified: sustained healthy drinking (81% of participants), temporary increase in risky drinking around retirement (12%) and slowly declining risky drinking after retirement (7%). The strongest pre‐retirement predictors for belonging to the group of temporary increase in risky drinking were current smoking [odds ratio (OR) = 3.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.70–5.64], male sex (OR = 2.77, 95% CI = 2.16–3.55), depression (OR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.05–1.99) and work‐place in the metropolitan area (OR = 1.29, 95% CI = 1.00–1.66). Compared with the slowly declining risky drinking group, the temporary increase in risky drinking group was characterized by lower occupational status and education, and work‐place outside the metropolitan area. CONCLUSIONS: In Finland, approximately 12% of people who reach retirement age experience a temporary increase in alcohol consumption to risky levels, while approximately 7% experience a slow decline in risky levels of alcohol consumption. Male gender, smoking, being depressed and working in a metropolitan area are associated with increased likelihood of increased alcohol consumption.