Cargando…

Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis

One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future globa...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Wahl, T., Haigh, I. D., Nicholls, R. J., Arns, A., Dangendorf, S., Hinkel, J., Slangen, A. B. A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5504349/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28685752
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms16075
_version_ 1783249274060931072
author Wahl, T.
Haigh, I. D.
Nicholls, R. J.
Arns, A.
Dangendorf, S.
Hinkel, J.
Slangen, A. B. A.
author_facet Wahl, T.
Haigh, I. D.
Nicholls, R. J.
Arns, A.
Dangendorf, S.
Hinkel, J.
Slangen, A. B. A.
author_sort Wahl, T.
collection PubMed
description One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-5504349
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2017
publisher Nature Publishing Group
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-55043492017-07-14 Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis Wahl, T. Haigh, I. D. Nicholls, R. J. Arns, A. Dangendorf, S. Hinkel, J. Slangen, A. B. A. Nat Commun Article One of the main consequences of mean sea level rise (SLR) on human settlements is an increase in flood risk due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme sea levels (ESL). While substantial research efforts are directed towards quantifying projections and uncertainties of future global and regional SLR, corresponding uncertainties in contemporary ESL have not been assessed and projections are limited. Here we quantify, for the first time at global scale, the uncertainties in present-day ESL estimates, which have by default been ignored in broad-scale sea-level rise impact assessments to date. ESL uncertainties exceed those from global SLR projections and, assuming that we meet the Paris agreement goals, the projected SLR itself by the end of the century in many regions. Both uncertainties in SLR projections and ESL estimates need to be understood and combined to fully assess potential impacts and adaptation needs. Nature Publishing Group 2017-07-07 /pmc/articles/PMC5504349/ /pubmed/28685752 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms16075 Text en Copyright © 2017, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
spellingShingle Article
Wahl, T.
Haigh, I. D.
Nicholls, R. J.
Arns, A.
Dangendorf, S.
Hinkel, J.
Slangen, A. B. A.
Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis
title Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis
title_full Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis
title_fullStr Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis
title_full_unstemmed Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis
title_short Understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis
title_sort understanding extreme sea levels for broad-scale coastal impact and adaptation analysis
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5504349/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28685752
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms16075
work_keys_str_mv AT wahlt understandingextremesealevelsforbroadscalecoastalimpactandadaptationanalysis
AT haighid understandingextremesealevelsforbroadscalecoastalimpactandadaptationanalysis
AT nichollsrj understandingextremesealevelsforbroadscalecoastalimpactandadaptationanalysis
AT arnsa understandingextremesealevelsforbroadscalecoastalimpactandadaptationanalysis
AT dangendorfs understandingextremesealevelsforbroadscalecoastalimpactandadaptationanalysis
AT hinkelj understandingextremesealevelsforbroadscalecoastalimpactandadaptationanalysis
AT slangenaba understandingextremesealevelsforbroadscalecoastalimpactandadaptationanalysis