Unemployment and HIV mortality in the countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development: 1981–2009

OBJECTIVES: To determine an association between unemployment rates and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) mortality in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). DESIGN: Multivariate regression analysis. PARTICIPANTS: OECD member states. SETTING: OECD. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: World Health Organization HIV mortality. RESULTS: Between 1981 and 2009, a 1% increase in unemployment was associated with an increase in HIV mortality in the OECD (coefficient for men 0.711, 0.334–1.089, p = 0.0003; coefficient for women 0.166, 0.071–0.260, p = 0.0007). Time lag analysis showed a significant increase in HIV mortality for up to two years after rises in unemployment: p = 0.0008 for men and p = 0.0030 for women in year 1, p = 0.0067 for men and p = 0.0403 for women in year 2. CONCLUSIONS: Rises in unemployment are associated with increased HIV mortality. Economic fiscal policy may impact upon population health. Policy discussions should take into consideration potential health outcomes.