A Model-Based Estimate of Regional Wheat Yield Gaps and Water Use Efficiency in Main Winter Wheat Production Regions of China

Wheat production is of great importance for national food security and is greatly influenced by the spatial variation of climatic variables, soils, cultivars, etc. This study used WheatGrow and CERES-Wheat models integrated with a GIS to estimate winter wheat productivity, yield gap and water use in the main wheat production regions of China. The results showed that the potential wheat yield gradually increased from south to north and from west to east, with a spatial distribution consistent with the accumulated hours of sunshine. The gap between potential and actual yield varied from 382 to 7515 kg ha(−1), with the highest values in Shanxi, Gansu and Shaanxi provinces and the lowest values in Sichuan province. The rainfed yield decreased gradually from south to north, roughly following the pattern of the ratio of accumulated precipitation to accumulated potential evapotranspiration. Under the scenario of autoirrigation, relatively high irrigation water use efficiency was found in western Shandong and southern Sichuan, as well as in northern Henan, Shanxi and Shaanxi. Furthermore, the limiting factors were analysed, and effective measures were suggested for improving regional winter wheat productivity. These results can be helpful for national policy making and water redistribution for agricultural production in China.