Cumulative risk of breast cancer screening outcomes according to the presence of previous benign breast disease and family history of breast cancer: supporting personalised screening

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to assess the cumulative risk of false-positive screening results, screen-detected cancer, and interval breast cancer in mammography screening among women with and without a previous benign breast disease and a family history of breast cancer. METHODS: The cohort included 42 928 women first screened at the age of 50–51 years at three areas of the Spanish Screening Programme (Girona, and two areas in Barcelona) between 1996 and 2011, and followed up until December 2012. We used discrete-time survival models to estimate the cumulative risk of each screening outcome over 10 biennial screening exams. RESULTS: The cumulative risk of false-positive results, screen-detected breast cancer, and interval cancer was 36.6, 5.3, and 1.4 for women with a previous benign breast disease, 24.1, 6.8, and 1.6% for women with a family history of breast cancer, 37.9, 9.0, and 3.2% for women with both a previous benign breast disease and a family history, and 23.1, 3.2, and 0.9% for women without either of these antecedents, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Women with a benign breast disease or a family history of breast cancer had an increased cumulative risk of favourable and unfavourable screening outcomes than women without these characteristics. A family history of breast cancer did not increase the cumulative risk of false-positive results. Identifying different risk profiles among screening participants provides useful information to stratify women according to their individualised risk when personalised screening strategies are discussed.