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Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six...

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Autores principales: Grieve, Brian D., Hare, Jon A., Saba, Vincent S.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5524788/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28740241
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06524-1
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author Grieve, Brian D.
Hare, Jon A.
Saba, Vincent S.
author_facet Grieve, Brian D.
Hare, Jon A.
Saba, Vincent S.
author_sort Grieve, Brian D.
collection PubMed
description Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081–2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.
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spelling pubmed-55247882017-07-26 Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf Grieve, Brian D. Hare, Jon A. Saba, Vincent S. Sci Rep Article Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081–2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species. Nature Publishing Group UK 2017-07-24 /pmc/articles/PMC5524788/ /pubmed/28740241 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06524-1 Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Grieve, Brian D.
Hare, Jon A.
Saba, Vincent S.
Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf
title Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf
title_full Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf
title_fullStr Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf
title_full_unstemmed Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf
title_short Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf
title_sort projecting the effects of climate change on calanus finmarchicus distribution within the u.s. northeast continental shelf
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5524788/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28740241
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06524-1
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