CT-perfusion stroke imaging: a threshold free probabilistic approach to predict infarct volume compared to traditional ischemic thresholds

The aim was to evaluate a novel method of threshold-free prediction of brain infarct from computed tomography perfusion (CTP) imaging in comparison to conventional ischemic thresholds. In a multicenter cohort of 161 patients with acute large vessel occlusion who received endovascular therapy, brain infarction was predicted by CTP using (1) optimized parameter cut-off values determined by ROC curve analysis and (2) probabilistic logistic regression threshold-free analysis. Predicted infarct volumes and prediction errors based on four perfusion parameter maps were compared against observed infarcts. In 93 patients with successful recanalization, the mean observed infarct volume was 35.7 ± 61.9 ml (the reference for core infarct not savable by reperfusion). Optimal parameter thresholds predicted mean infarct volumes between 53.2 ± 44.4 and 125.0 ± 95.4 ml whereas threshold-free analysis predicted mean volumes between 35.9 ± 28.5 and 36.1 ± 29.0 ml. In 68 patients with persistent occlusion, the mean observed infarct volume was 113.4 ± 138.3 ml (the reference to define penumbral infarct savable by reperfusion). Predicted mean infarct volumes by parameter thresholds ranged from 91.4 ± 81.5 to 163.8 ± 135.7 ml, by threshold-free analysis from 113.2 ± 89.9 to 113.5 ± 89.0 ml. Threshold-free prediction of infarct volumes had a higher precision and lower patient-specific prediction error than conventional thresholding. Penumbra to core lesion mismatch estimate may therefore benefit from threshold-free CTP analysis.