Quantifying sources of bias in longitudinal data linkage studies of child abuse and neglect: measuring impact of outcome specification, linkage error, and partial cohort follow-up

BACKGROUND: Health informatics projects combining statewide birth populations with child welfare records have emerged as a valuable approach to conducting longitudinal research of child maltreatment. The potential bias resulting from linkage misspecification, partial cohort follow-up, and outcome misclassification in these studies has been largely unexplored. This study integrated epidemiological survey and novel administrative data sources to establish the Alaska Longitudinal Child Abuse and Neglect Linkage (ALCANLink) project. Using these data we evaluated and quantified the impact of non-linkage misspecification and single source maltreatment ascertainment use on reported maltreatment risk and effect estimates. METHODS: The ALCANLink project integrates the 2009–2011 Alaska Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) sample with multiple administrative databases through 2014, including one novel administrative source to track out-of-state emigration. For this project we limited our analysis to the 2009 PRAMS sample. We report on the impact of linkage quality, cohort follow-up, and multisource outcome ascertainment on the incidence proportion of reported maltreatment before age 6 and hazard ratios of selected characteristics that are often available in birth cohort linkage studies of maltreatment. RESULTS: Failure to account for out-of-state emigration biased the incidence proportion by 12% (from 28.3%(w) to 25.2%(w)), and the hazard ratio (HR) by as much as 33% for some risk factors. Overly restrictive linkage parameters biased the incidence proportion downwards by 43% and the HR by as much as 27% for some factors. Multi-source linkages, on the other hand, were of little benefit for improving reported maltreatment ascertainment. CONCLUSION: Using the ALCANLink data which included a novel administrative data source, we were able to observe and quantify bias to both the incidence proportion and HR in a birth cohort linkage study of reported child maltreatment. Failure to account for out-of-state emigration and low-quality linkage methods may induce bias in longitudinal data linkage studies of child maltreatment which other researchers should be aware of. In this study multi-agency linkage did not lead to substantial increased detection of reported maltreatment. The ALCANLink methodology may be a practical approach for other states interested in developing longitudinal birth cohort linkage studies of maltreatment that requires limited resources to implement, provides comprehensive data elements, and can facilitate comparability between studies. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40621-017-0119-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.