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Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries

Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the h...

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Autores principales: Kendrovski, Vladimir, Baccini, Michela, Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo, Wolf, Tanja, Paunovic, Elizabet, Menne, Bettina
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5551167/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28678192
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070729
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author Kendrovski, Vladimir
Baccini, Michela
Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo
Wolf, Tanja
Paunovic, Elizabet
Menne, Bettina
author_facet Kendrovski, Vladimir
Baccini, Michela
Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo
Wolf, Tanja
Paunovic, Elizabet
Menne, Bettina
author_sort Kendrovski, Vladimir
collection PubMed
description Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.
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spelling pubmed-55511672017-08-11 Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries Kendrovski, Vladimir Baccini, Michela Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo Wolf, Tanja Paunovic, Elizabet Menne, Bettina Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades. MDPI 2017-07-05 2017-07 /pmc/articles/PMC5551167/ /pubmed/28678192 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070729 Text en © 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Kendrovski, Vladimir
Baccini, Michela
Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo
Wolf, Tanja
Paunovic, Elizabet
Menne, Bettina
Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries
title Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries
title_full Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries
title_fullStr Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries
title_full_unstemmed Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries
title_short Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries
title_sort quantifying projected heat mortality impacts under 21st-century warming conditions for selected european countries
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5551167/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28678192
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070729
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