Cargando…
Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries
Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the h...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2017
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5551167/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28678192 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070729 |
_version_ | 1783256257833992192 |
---|---|
author | Kendrovski, Vladimir Baccini, Michela Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo Wolf, Tanja Paunovic, Elizabet Menne, Bettina |
author_facet | Kendrovski, Vladimir Baccini, Michela Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo Wolf, Tanja Paunovic, Elizabet Menne, Bettina |
author_sort | Kendrovski, Vladimir |
collection | PubMed |
description | Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5551167 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-55511672017-08-11 Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries Kendrovski, Vladimir Baccini, Michela Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo Wolf, Tanja Paunovic, Elizabet Menne, Bettina Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035–2064 and 2071–2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071–2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades. MDPI 2017-07-05 2017-07 /pmc/articles/PMC5551167/ /pubmed/28678192 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070729 Text en © 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Kendrovski, Vladimir Baccini, Michela Sanchez Martinez, Gerardo Wolf, Tanja Paunovic, Elizabet Menne, Bettina Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries |
title | Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries |
title_full | Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries |
title_fullStr | Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries |
title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries |
title_short | Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries |
title_sort | quantifying projected heat mortality impacts under 21st-century warming conditions for selected european countries |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5551167/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28678192 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070729 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT kendrovskivladimir quantifyingprojectedheatmortalityimpactsunder21stcenturywarmingconditionsforselectedeuropeancountries AT baccinimichela quantifyingprojectedheatmortalityimpactsunder21stcenturywarmingconditionsforselectedeuropeancountries AT sanchezmartinezgerardo quantifyingprojectedheatmortalityimpactsunder21stcenturywarmingconditionsforselectedeuropeancountries AT wolftanja quantifyingprojectedheatmortalityimpactsunder21stcenturywarmingconditionsforselectedeuropeancountries AT paunovicelizabet quantifyingprojectedheatmortalityimpactsunder21stcenturywarmingconditionsforselectedeuropeancountries AT mennebettina quantifyingprojectedheatmortalityimpactsunder21stcenturywarmingconditionsforselectedeuropeancountries |