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Environmental Drivers and Predicted Risk of Bacillary Dysentery in Southwest China

Bacillary dysentery has long been a considerable health problem in southwest China, however, the quantitative relationship between anthropogenic and physical environmental factors and the disease is not fully understand. It is also not clear where exactly the bacillary dysentery risk is potentially...

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Autores principales: Zhang, Han, Si, Yali, Wang, Xiaofeng, Gong, Peng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5551220/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28708077
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070782
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author Zhang, Han
Si, Yali
Wang, Xiaofeng
Gong, Peng
author_facet Zhang, Han
Si, Yali
Wang, Xiaofeng
Gong, Peng
author_sort Zhang, Han
collection PubMed
description Bacillary dysentery has long been a considerable health problem in southwest China, however, the quantitative relationship between anthropogenic and physical environmental factors and the disease is not fully understand. It is also not clear where exactly the bacillary dysentery risk is potentially high. Based on the result of hotspot analysis, we generated training samples to build a spatial distribution model. Univariate analyses, autocorrelation and multi-collinearity examinations and stepwise selection were then applied to screen the potential causative factors. Multiple logistic regressions were finally applied to quantify the effects of key factors. A bootstrapping strategy was adopted while fitting models. The model was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Kappa and independent validation samples. Hotspot counties were mainly mountainous lands in southwest China. Higher risk of bacillary dysentery was found associated with underdeveloped socio-economy, proximity to farmland or water bodies, higher environmental temperature, medium relative humidity and the distribution of the Tibeto-Burman ethnicity. A predictive risk map with high accuracy (88.19%) was generated. The high-risk areas are mainly located in the mountainous lands where the Tibeto-Burman people live, especially in the basins, river valleys or other flat places in the mountains with relatively lower elevation and a warmer climate. In the high-risk areas predicted by this study, improving the economic development, investment in health care and the construction of infrastructures for safe water supply, waste treatment and sewage disposal, and improving health related education could reduce the disease risk.
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spelling pubmed-55512202017-08-11 Environmental Drivers and Predicted Risk of Bacillary Dysentery in Southwest China Zhang, Han Si, Yali Wang, Xiaofeng Gong, Peng Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Bacillary dysentery has long been a considerable health problem in southwest China, however, the quantitative relationship between anthropogenic and physical environmental factors and the disease is not fully understand. It is also not clear where exactly the bacillary dysentery risk is potentially high. Based on the result of hotspot analysis, we generated training samples to build a spatial distribution model. Univariate analyses, autocorrelation and multi-collinearity examinations and stepwise selection were then applied to screen the potential causative factors. Multiple logistic regressions were finally applied to quantify the effects of key factors. A bootstrapping strategy was adopted while fitting models. The model was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Kappa and independent validation samples. Hotspot counties were mainly mountainous lands in southwest China. Higher risk of bacillary dysentery was found associated with underdeveloped socio-economy, proximity to farmland or water bodies, higher environmental temperature, medium relative humidity and the distribution of the Tibeto-Burman ethnicity. A predictive risk map with high accuracy (88.19%) was generated. The high-risk areas are mainly located in the mountainous lands where the Tibeto-Burman people live, especially in the basins, river valleys or other flat places in the mountains with relatively lower elevation and a warmer climate. In the high-risk areas predicted by this study, improving the economic development, investment in health care and the construction of infrastructures for safe water supply, waste treatment and sewage disposal, and improving health related education could reduce the disease risk. MDPI 2017-07-14 2017-07 /pmc/articles/PMC5551220/ /pubmed/28708077 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070782 Text en © 2017 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Zhang, Han
Si, Yali
Wang, Xiaofeng
Gong, Peng
Environmental Drivers and Predicted Risk of Bacillary Dysentery in Southwest China
title Environmental Drivers and Predicted Risk of Bacillary Dysentery in Southwest China
title_full Environmental Drivers and Predicted Risk of Bacillary Dysentery in Southwest China
title_fullStr Environmental Drivers and Predicted Risk of Bacillary Dysentery in Southwest China
title_full_unstemmed Environmental Drivers and Predicted Risk of Bacillary Dysentery in Southwest China
title_short Environmental Drivers and Predicted Risk of Bacillary Dysentery in Southwest China
title_sort environmental drivers and predicted risk of bacillary dysentery in southwest china
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5551220/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28708077
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14070782
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