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Modeling the transmission and control of Zika in Brazil

Zika virus, a reemerging mosquito-borne flavivirus, started spread across Central and Southern America and more recently to North America. The most serious impacted country is Brazil. Based on the transmission mechanism of the virus and assessment of the limited data on the reported suspected cases,...

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Autores principales: Wang, Liping, Zhao, Hongyong, Oliva, Sergio Muniz, Zhu, Huaiping
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5552773/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28798323
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07264-y
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author Wang, Liping
Zhao, Hongyong
Oliva, Sergio Muniz
Zhu, Huaiping
author_facet Wang, Liping
Zhao, Hongyong
Oliva, Sergio Muniz
Zhu, Huaiping
author_sort Wang, Liping
collection PubMed
description Zika virus, a reemerging mosquito-borne flavivirus, started spread across Central and Southern America and more recently to North America. The most serious impacted country is Brazil. Based on the transmission mechanism of the virus and assessment of the limited data on the reported suspected cases, we establish a dynamical model which allows us to estimate the basic reproduction number R (0) = 2.5020. The wild spreading of the virus make it a great challenge to public health to control and prevention of the virus. We formulate two control models to study the impact of releasing transgenosis mosquitoes (introducing bacterium Wolbachia into Aedes aegypti) on the transmission of Zika virus in Brazil. Our models and analysis suggest that simultaneously releasing Wolbachia-harboring female and male mosquitoes will achieve the target of population replacement, while releasing only Wolbachia-harboring male mosquitoes will suppress or even eradicate wild mosquitoes eventually. We conclude that only releasing male Wolbachia mosquitoes is a better strategy for control the spreading of Zika virus in Brazil.
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spelling pubmed-55527732017-08-14 Modeling the transmission and control of Zika in Brazil Wang, Liping Zhao, Hongyong Oliva, Sergio Muniz Zhu, Huaiping Sci Rep Article Zika virus, a reemerging mosquito-borne flavivirus, started spread across Central and Southern America and more recently to North America. The most serious impacted country is Brazil. Based on the transmission mechanism of the virus and assessment of the limited data on the reported suspected cases, we establish a dynamical model which allows us to estimate the basic reproduction number R (0) = 2.5020. The wild spreading of the virus make it a great challenge to public health to control and prevention of the virus. We formulate two control models to study the impact of releasing transgenosis mosquitoes (introducing bacterium Wolbachia into Aedes aegypti) on the transmission of Zika virus in Brazil. Our models and analysis suggest that simultaneously releasing Wolbachia-harboring female and male mosquitoes will achieve the target of population replacement, while releasing only Wolbachia-harboring male mosquitoes will suppress or even eradicate wild mosquitoes eventually. We conclude that only releasing male Wolbachia mosquitoes is a better strategy for control the spreading of Zika virus in Brazil. Nature Publishing Group UK 2017-08-10 /pmc/articles/PMC5552773/ /pubmed/28798323 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07264-y Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Wang, Liping
Zhao, Hongyong
Oliva, Sergio Muniz
Zhu, Huaiping
Modeling the transmission and control of Zika in Brazil
title Modeling the transmission and control of Zika in Brazil
title_full Modeling the transmission and control of Zika in Brazil
title_fullStr Modeling the transmission and control of Zika in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the transmission and control of Zika in Brazil
title_short Modeling the transmission and control of Zika in Brazil
title_sort modeling the transmission and control of zika in brazil
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5552773/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28798323
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-07264-y
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