The kynurenine:tryptophan ratio as a predictor of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus in individuals with coronary artery disease

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The tryptophan metabolite kynurenine has potent immune modulatory and vasoactive properties. Experimental data implicate kynurenine in obesity-related morbidities. Epidemiological studies are, however, sparse. We evaluated associations of the plasma and urine kynurenine:tryptophan ratio (KTR) to incident type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We followed 2519 individuals with coronary artery disease (CAD; 73.1% men) without diabetes at baseline for a median of 7.6 years, during which 173 (6.9%) new incidences of type 2 diabetes were identified. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied to investigate the prospective relationships of plasma and urine KTR with new onset type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: At inclusion, mean (SD) age was 61.3 (10.4) years, BMI was 25.9 (3.71) kg/m(2) and median (interquartile range) HbA(1c) was 5.6% (5.0%–6.0%) (38 [31–42] mmol/mol). Plasma KTR was not significantly related to type 2 diabetes risk. By contrast, urine KTR showed a strong positive association. Comparing quartile 4 with quartile 1, the HRs (95% CIs) were 2.59 (1.56, 4.30) and 2.35 (1.39, 3.96) in the age- and sex-adjusted and multivariate models, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Urine KTR is a strong predictor of incident type 2 diabetes in individuals with CAD. Potential clinical implications and possible pathogenic roles of renal kynurenine excretion in type 2 diabetes development should be further elucidated. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-017-4329-9) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.