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Newsvendor problem under complete uncertainty: a case of innovative products
The paper presents a new scenario-based decision rule for the classical version of the newsvendor problem (NP) under complete uncertainty (i.e. uncertainty with unknown probabilities). So far, NP has been analyzed under uncertainty with known probabilities or under uncertainty with partial informati...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2016
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5556468/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28855846 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10100-016-0458-3 |
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author | Gaspars-Wieloch, Helena |
author_facet | Gaspars-Wieloch, Helena |
author_sort | Gaspars-Wieloch, Helena |
collection | PubMed |
description | The paper presents a new scenario-based decision rule for the classical version of the newsvendor problem (NP) under complete uncertainty (i.e. uncertainty with unknown probabilities). So far, NP has been analyzed under uncertainty with known probabilities or under uncertainty with partial information (probabilities known incompletely). The novel approach is designed for the sale of new, innovative products, where it is quite complicated to define probabilities or even probability-like quantities, because there are no data available for forecasting the upcoming demand via statistical analysis. The new procedure described in the contribution is based on a hybrid of Hurwicz and Bayes decision rules. It takes into account the decision maker’s attitude towards risk (measured by coefficients of optimism and pessimism) and the dispersion (asymmetry, range, frequency of extremes values) of payoffs connected with particular order quantities. It does not require any information about the probability distribution. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5556468 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2016 |
publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-55564682017-08-28 Newsvendor problem under complete uncertainty: a case of innovative products Gaspars-Wieloch, Helena Cent Eur J Oper Res Original Paper The paper presents a new scenario-based decision rule for the classical version of the newsvendor problem (NP) under complete uncertainty (i.e. uncertainty with unknown probabilities). So far, NP has been analyzed under uncertainty with known probabilities or under uncertainty with partial information (probabilities known incompletely). The novel approach is designed for the sale of new, innovative products, where it is quite complicated to define probabilities or even probability-like quantities, because there are no data available for forecasting the upcoming demand via statistical analysis. The new procedure described in the contribution is based on a hybrid of Hurwicz and Bayes decision rules. It takes into account the decision maker’s attitude towards risk (measured by coefficients of optimism and pessimism) and the dispersion (asymmetry, range, frequency of extremes values) of payoffs connected with particular order quantities. It does not require any information about the probability distribution. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2016-10-24 2017 /pmc/articles/PMC5556468/ /pubmed/28855846 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10100-016-0458-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2016 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. |
spellingShingle | Original Paper Gaspars-Wieloch, Helena Newsvendor problem under complete uncertainty: a case of innovative products |
title | Newsvendor problem under complete uncertainty: a case of innovative products |
title_full | Newsvendor problem under complete uncertainty: a case of innovative products |
title_fullStr | Newsvendor problem under complete uncertainty: a case of innovative products |
title_full_unstemmed | Newsvendor problem under complete uncertainty: a case of innovative products |
title_short | Newsvendor problem under complete uncertainty: a case of innovative products |
title_sort | newsvendor problem under complete uncertainty: a case of innovative products |
topic | Original Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5556468/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28855846 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10100-016-0458-3 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT gasparswielochhelena newsvendorproblemundercompleteuncertaintyacaseofinnovativeproducts |