Whole-blood RNA transcript-based models can predict clinical response in two large independent clinical studies of patients with advanced melanoma treated with the checkpoint inhibitor, tremelimumab

BACKGROUND: Tremelimumab is an antibody that blocks CTLA-4 and demonstrates clinical efficacy in a subset of advanced melanoma patients. An unmet clinical need exists for blood-based response-predictive gene signatures to facilitate clinically effective and cost-efficient use of such immunotherapeutic interventions. METHODS: Peripheral blood samples were collected in PAXgene® tubes from 210 treatment-naïve melanoma patients receiving tremelimumab in a worldwide, multicenter phase III study (discovery dataset). A central panel of radiologists determined objective response using RECIST criteria. Gene expression for 169 mRNA transcripts was measured using quantitative PCR. A 15-gene pre-treatment response-predictive classifier model was identified. An independent population (N = 150) of refractory melanoma patients receiving tremelimumab after chemotherapy enrolled in a worldwide phase II study (validation dataset). The classifier model, using the same genes, coefficients and constants for objective response and one-year survival after treatment, was applied to the validation dataset. RESULTS: A 15-gene pre-treatment classifier model (containing ADAM17, CDK2, CDKN2A, DPP4, ERBB2, HLA-DRA, ICOS, ITGA4, LARGE, MYC, NAB2, NRAS, RHOC, TGFB1, and TIMP1) achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.91, p < 0.0001) for objective response and 0.6 (95% confidence interval 0.54 to 0.67, p = 0.0066) for one-year survival in the discovery set. This model was validated in the validation set with AUCs of 0.62 (95% confidence interval 0.54 to 0.70 p = 0.0455) for objective response and 0.68 for one-year survival (95% confidence interval 0.59 to 0.75 p = 0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the largest blood-based biomarker study of a checkpoint inhibitor, tremelimumab, which demonstrates a validated pre-treatment mRNA classifier model that predicts clinical response. The data suggest that the model captures a biological signature representative of genes needed for a robust anti-cancer immune response. It also identifies non-responders to tremelimumab at baseline prior to treatment. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40425-017-0272-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.