Screening for Chikungunya virus infection in aged people: Development and internal validation of a new score

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to derive and validate a score for Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection screening in old people admitted to acute care units. METHODS: This study was performed in the Martinique University Hospitals from retrospective cases. Patients were aged 65+, admitted to acute care units for suspected CHIKV infection in 2014, with biological testing using Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR). RT-PCR was used as the gold standard. A screening score was created using adjusted odds ratios of factors associated with positive RT-PCR derived from a multivariable logistic regression model. A ROC curve was used to determine the best cut-off of the score. Bootstrap analysis was used to evaluate its internal validity. RESULTS: In all, 687 patients were included, 68% with confirmed CHIKV infection, and 32% with laboratory-unconfirmed CHIKV infection. Mean age was 80±8 years, 51% were women. Four variables were found to be independently associated with positive RT-PCR (fever: 3 points; arthralgia of the ankle: 2 points; lymphopenia: 6 points; absence of neutrophil leucocytosis: 10 points). The best cut-off was score ≥12; sensitivity was 87% (83%-90%) and specificity was 70% (63%-76%). CONCLUSION: This score shows good diagnostic performance and good internal validation and could be helpful to screen aged people for CHIKV infection.