Prediction of future cardiovascular disease with an equation to estimate apolipoprotein B in patients with high cardiovascular risk: an analysis from the TNT and IDEAL study

BACKGROUND: Apolipoprotein B (apoB) is known to be a more powerful predictor of cardiovascular disease than conventional lipids. We aimed to determine the clinical relevance of a newly developed equation to estimate serum apoB levels based on total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in patients with high cardiovascular risk. METHODS: The occurrence of a major cardiovascular event (MCVE) was assessed using the data from the Treating to New Targets (TNT) and Incremental Decrease in End points through Aggressive Lipid lowering (IDEAL) trials. RESULTS: Pooled analysis of these two data sets showed that both directly-measured apoB (HR per 1-SD (95% CI): 1.16 (1.11–1.21), P < 0.001) and apoB estimated from the eq. (HR per 1-SD (95% CI): 1.14 (1.09–1.19), P < 0.001) were significantly associated with the development of a future MCVE. Prediction of MCVEs by the apoB eq. (C statistic 0.650) was nearly identical to that of directly-measured apoB (0.651). In addition, the net reclassification indices indicated no difference in the prediction of MCVEs between models including the apoB equation and directly-measured apoB (1% (−1.3–4.0), P = 0.31). CONCLUSIONS: Our equation to predict apoB levels showed MCVE risk prediction comparable to directly-measured apoB in high risk patients with previous coronary heart disease.