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Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes

Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent st...

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Autores principales: Seroka, Greg, Miles, Travis, Xu, Yi, Kohut, Josh, Schofield, Oscar, Glenn, Scott
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5586363/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28944132
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012756
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author Seroka, Greg
Miles, Travis
Xu, Yi
Kohut, Josh
Schofield, Oscar
Glenn, Scott
author_facet Seroka, Greg
Miles, Travis
Xu, Yi
Kohut, Josh
Schofield, Oscar
Glenn, Scott
author_sort Seroka, Greg
collection PubMed
description Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead‐of‐eye‐center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation‐validated, high‐resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid‐Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)—with an inshore Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season—and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)—with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead‐of‐eye‐center depth‐averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead‐of‐eye‐center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3‐D coupled atmosphere‐ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels.
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spelling pubmed-55863632017-09-21 Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes Seroka, Greg Miles, Travis Xu, Yi Kohut, Josh Schofield, Oscar Glenn, Scott J Geophys Res Oceans Research Articles Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead‐of‐eye‐center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation‐validated, high‐resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid‐Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)—with an inshore Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season—and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)—with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead‐of‐eye‐center depth‐averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead‐of‐eye‐center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3‐D coupled atmosphere‐ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2017-06-15 2017-06 /pmc/articles/PMC5586363/ /pubmed/28944132 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012756 Text en © 2017. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution‐NonCommercial‐NoDerivs (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Seroka, Greg
Miles, Travis
Xu, Yi
Kohut, Josh
Schofield, Oscar
Glenn, Scott
Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes
title Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes
title_full Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes
title_fullStr Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes
title_full_unstemmed Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes
title_short Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes
title_sort rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5586363/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28944132
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017JC012756
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