Body Fat Distribution and the Risk of Incident Metabolic Syndrome: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

The effect of visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) area on metabolic syndrome (MS) has been debated. We aimed to evaluate the effects of VAT and SAT on the incidence of MS and its components in a large and apparently healthy Asian population. We performed a longitudinal cohort study of 1,964 subjects who received health screenings over a 5-year follow-up period; 317 incidents of MS (16.1%) were observed during a median follow-up of 4.5 years. The VAT area was significantly associated with a higher incidence of MS; the adjusted HR for incident MS per 1 SD of VAT was 1.50 (95% CI 1.29–1.74), and the adjusted HR of the 5(th) VAT quintile compared with the 1(st) quintile was 3.73 (95% CI 2.22–6.28). However, the SAT area was not associated with incident MS. Although the VAT area was longitudinally associated with the incidence of each component of MS, the SAT area was inversely associated with the risk of high blood pressure, fasting blood sugar, and triglycerides, with marginal significance. In conclusion, the VAT area is longitudinally associated with an increased risk of incident MS, while SAT may have a protective effect against the incidence of individual MS components.