Atrial fibrillation and the risk for myocardial infarction, all-cause mortality and heart failure: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: In contemporary atrial fibrillation trials most deaths are cardiac related, whereas stroke and bleeding represent only a small subset of deaths. We aimed to evaluate the long-term risk of cardiac events and all-cause mortality in individuals with atrial fibrillation compared to no atrial fibrillation. DESIGN: A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published between 1 January 2006 and 21 October 2016. METHODS: Four databases were searched. Studies had follow-up of at least 500 stable patients for either cardiac endpoints or all-cause mortality for 12 months or longer. Publication bias was evaluated and random effects models were used to synthesise the results. Heterogeneity between studies was examined by subgroup and meta-regression analyses. RESULTS: A total of 15 cohort studies was included. Analyses indicated that atrial fibrillation was associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction (relative risk (RR) 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.26–1.85), all-cause mortality (RR 1.95, 95% CI 1.50–2.54) and heart failure (RR 4.62, 95% CI 3.13–6.83). Coronary heart disease at baseline was associated with a reduced risk of myocardial infarction and explained 57% of the heterogeneity. A prospective cohort design accounted for 25% of all-cause mortality heterogeneity. Due to there being fewer than 10 studies, sources of heterogeneity were inconclusive for heart failure. CONCLUSIONS: Atrial fibrillation seems to be associated with an increased risk of subsequent myocardial infarction in patients without coronary heart disease and an increased risk of, all-cause mortality and heart failure in patients with and without coronary heart disease.