Fine-scale harbour seal usage for informed marine spatial planning

High-resolution distribution maps can help inform conservation measures for protected species; including where any impacts of proposed commercial developments overlap the range of focal species. Around Orkney, northern Scotland, UK, the harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population has decreased by 78% over 20 years. Concern for the declining harbour seal population has led to constraints being placed on tidal energy generation developments. For this study area, telemetry data from 54 animals tagged between 2003 and 2015 were used to produce density estimation maps. Predictive habitat models using GAM-GEEs provided robust predictions in areas where telemetry data were absent, and were combined with density estimation maps, and then scaled to population levels using August terrestrial counts between 2008 and 2015, to produce harbour seal usage maps with confidence intervals around Orkney and the North coast of Scotland. The selected habitat model showed that distance from haul out, proportion of sand in seabed sediment, and annual mean power were important predictors of space use. Fine-scale usage maps can be used in consenting and licensing of anthropogenic developments to determine local abundance. When quantifying commercial impacts through changes to species distributions, usage maps can be spatially explicitly linked to individual-based models to inform predicted movement and behaviour.