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Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory

We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Obse...

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Autores principales: Möstl, C., Isavnin, A., Boakes, P. D., Kilpua, E. K. J., Davies, J. A., Harrison, R. A., Barnes, D., Krupar, V., Eastwood, J. P., Good, S. W., Forsyth, R. J., Bothmer, V., Reiss, M. A., Amerstorfer, T., Winslow, R. M., Anderson, B. J., Philpott, L. C., Rodriguez, L., Rouillard, A. P., Gallagher, P., Nieves‐Chinchilla, T., Zhang, T. L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5601179/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28983209
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001614
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author Möstl, C.
Isavnin, A.
Boakes, P. D.
Kilpua, E. K. J.
Davies, J. A.
Harrison, R. A.
Barnes, D.
Krupar, V.
Eastwood, J. P.
Good, S. W.
Forsyth, R. J.
Bothmer, V.
Reiss, M. A.
Amerstorfer, T.
Winslow, R. M.
Anderson, B. J.
Philpott, L. C.
Rodriguez, L.
Rouillard, A. P.
Gallagher, P.
Nieves‐Chinchilla, T.
Zhang, T. L.
author_facet Möstl, C.
Isavnin, A.
Boakes, P. D.
Kilpua, E. K. J.
Davies, J. A.
Harrison, R. A.
Barnes, D.
Krupar, V.
Eastwood, J. P.
Good, S. W.
Forsyth, R. J.
Bothmer, V.
Reiss, M. A.
Amerstorfer, T.
Winslow, R. M.
Anderson, B. J.
Philpott, L. C.
Rodriguez, L.
Rouillard, A. P.
Gallagher, P.
Nieves‐Chinchilla, T.
Zhang, T. L.
author_sort Möstl, C.
collection PubMed
description We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self‐similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide‐angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first‐order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun‐Earth L5 point.
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spelling pubmed-56011792017-10-03 Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory Möstl, C. Isavnin, A. Boakes, P. D. Kilpua, E. K. J. Davies, J. A. Harrison, R. A. Barnes, D. Krupar, V. Eastwood, J. P. Good, S. W. Forsyth, R. J. Bothmer, V. Reiss, M. A. Amerstorfer, T. Winslow, R. M. Anderson, B. J. Philpott, L. C. Rodriguez, L. Rouillard, A. P. Gallagher, P. Nieves‐Chinchilla, T. Zhang, T. L. Space Weather Research Articles We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self‐similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide‐angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first‐order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun‐Earth L5 point. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2017-07-29 2017-07 /pmc/articles/PMC5601179/ /pubmed/28983209 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001614 Text en ©2017. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Möstl, C.
Isavnin, A.
Boakes, P. D.
Kilpua, E. K. J.
Davies, J. A.
Harrison, R. A.
Barnes, D.
Krupar, V.
Eastwood, J. P.
Good, S. W.
Forsyth, R. J.
Bothmer, V.
Reiss, M. A.
Amerstorfer, T.
Winslow, R. M.
Anderson, B. J.
Philpott, L. C.
Rodriguez, L.
Rouillard, A. P.
Gallagher, P.
Nieves‐Chinchilla, T.
Zhang, T. L.
Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory
title Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory
title_full Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory
title_fullStr Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory
title_full_unstemmed Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory
title_short Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory
title_sort modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the heliophysics system observatory
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5601179/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28983209
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017SW001614
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