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The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity

Stochastic models provide quantitative evaluations about the occurrence of earthquakes. A basic component of this type of models are the uncertainties in defining main features of an intrinsically random process. Even if, at a very basic level, any attempting to distinguish between types of uncertai...

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Autor principal: Lombardi, A. M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5603549/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28924175
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11925-3
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author Lombardi, A. M.
author_facet Lombardi, A. M.
author_sort Lombardi, A. M.
collection PubMed
description Stochastic models provide quantitative evaluations about the occurrence of earthquakes. A basic component of this type of models are the uncertainties in defining main features of an intrinsically random process. Even if, at a very basic level, any attempting to distinguish between types of uncertainty is questionable, an usual way to deal with this topic is to separate epistemic uncertainty, due to lack of knowledge, from aleatory variability, due to randomness. In the present study this problem is addressed in the narrow context of short-term modeling of earthquakes and, specifically, of ETAS modeling. By mean of an application of a specific version of the ETAS model to seismicity of Central Italy, recently struck by a sequence with a main event of Mw6.5, the aleatory and epistemic (parametric) uncertainty are separated and quantified. The main result of the paper is that the parametric uncertainty of the ETAS-type model, adopted here, is much lower than the aleatory variability in the process. This result points out two main aspects: an analyst has good chances to set the ETAS-type models, but he may retrospectively describe and forecast the earthquake occurrences with still limited precision and accuracy.
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spelling pubmed-56035492017-09-20 The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity Lombardi, A. M. Sci Rep Article Stochastic models provide quantitative evaluations about the occurrence of earthquakes. A basic component of this type of models are the uncertainties in defining main features of an intrinsically random process. Even if, at a very basic level, any attempting to distinguish between types of uncertainty is questionable, an usual way to deal with this topic is to separate epistemic uncertainty, due to lack of knowledge, from aleatory variability, due to randomness. In the present study this problem is addressed in the narrow context of short-term modeling of earthquakes and, specifically, of ETAS modeling. By mean of an application of a specific version of the ETAS model to seismicity of Central Italy, recently struck by a sequence with a main event of Mw6.5, the aleatory and epistemic (parametric) uncertainty are separated and quantified. The main result of the paper is that the parametric uncertainty of the ETAS-type model, adopted here, is much lower than the aleatory variability in the process. This result points out two main aspects: an analyst has good chances to set the ETAS-type models, but he may retrospectively describe and forecast the earthquake occurrences with still limited precision and accuracy. Nature Publishing Group UK 2017-09-18 /pmc/articles/PMC5603549/ /pubmed/28924175 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11925-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Lombardi, A. M.
The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity
title The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity
title_full The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity
title_fullStr The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity
title_full_unstemmed The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity
title_short The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity
title_sort epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the etas-type models: an application to the central italy seismicity
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5603549/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28924175
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11925-3
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