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The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity
Stochastic models provide quantitative evaluations about the occurrence of earthquakes. A basic component of this type of models are the uncertainties in defining main features of an intrinsically random process. Even if, at a very basic level, any attempting to distinguish between types of uncertai...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Nature Publishing Group UK
2017
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5603549/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28924175 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11925-3 |
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author | Lombardi, A. M. |
author_facet | Lombardi, A. M. |
author_sort | Lombardi, A. M. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Stochastic models provide quantitative evaluations about the occurrence of earthquakes. A basic component of this type of models are the uncertainties in defining main features of an intrinsically random process. Even if, at a very basic level, any attempting to distinguish between types of uncertainty is questionable, an usual way to deal with this topic is to separate epistemic uncertainty, due to lack of knowledge, from aleatory variability, due to randomness. In the present study this problem is addressed in the narrow context of short-term modeling of earthquakes and, specifically, of ETAS modeling. By mean of an application of a specific version of the ETAS model to seismicity of Central Italy, recently struck by a sequence with a main event of Mw6.5, the aleatory and epistemic (parametric) uncertainty are separated and quantified. The main result of the paper is that the parametric uncertainty of the ETAS-type model, adopted here, is much lower than the aleatory variability in the process. This result points out two main aspects: an analyst has good chances to set the ETAS-type models, but he may retrospectively describe and forecast the earthquake occurrences with still limited precision and accuracy. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5603549 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-56035492017-09-20 The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity Lombardi, A. M. Sci Rep Article Stochastic models provide quantitative evaluations about the occurrence of earthquakes. A basic component of this type of models are the uncertainties in defining main features of an intrinsically random process. Even if, at a very basic level, any attempting to distinguish between types of uncertainty is questionable, an usual way to deal with this topic is to separate epistemic uncertainty, due to lack of knowledge, from aleatory variability, due to randomness. In the present study this problem is addressed in the narrow context of short-term modeling of earthquakes and, specifically, of ETAS modeling. By mean of an application of a specific version of the ETAS model to seismicity of Central Italy, recently struck by a sequence with a main event of Mw6.5, the aleatory and epistemic (parametric) uncertainty are separated and quantified. The main result of the paper is that the parametric uncertainty of the ETAS-type model, adopted here, is much lower than the aleatory variability in the process. This result points out two main aspects: an analyst has good chances to set the ETAS-type models, but he may retrospectively describe and forecast the earthquake occurrences with still limited precision and accuracy. Nature Publishing Group UK 2017-09-18 /pmc/articles/PMC5603549/ /pubmed/28924175 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11925-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Lombardi, A. M. The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity |
title | The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity |
title_full | The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity |
title_fullStr | The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity |
title_full_unstemmed | The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity |
title_short | The epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the ETAS-type models: an application to the Central Italy seismicity |
title_sort | epistemic and aleatory uncertainties of the etas-type models: an application to the central italy seismicity |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5603549/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28924175 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11925-3 |
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