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Simple yet effective: Historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in Poland
Species distribution models are scarcely applicable to invasive species because of their breaking of the models’ assumptions. So far, few mechanistic, semi-mechanistic or statistical solutions like dispersal constraints or propagule limitation have been applied. We evaluated a novel quasi-semi-mecha...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2017
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5604976/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28926580 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184677 |
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author | Mędrzycki, Piotr Jarzyna, Ingeborga Obidziński, Artur Tokarska-Guzik, Barbara Sotek, Zofia Pabjanek, Piotr Pytlarczyk, Adam Sachajdakiewicz, Izabela |
author_facet | Mędrzycki, Piotr Jarzyna, Ingeborga Obidziński, Artur Tokarska-Guzik, Barbara Sotek, Zofia Pabjanek, Piotr Pytlarczyk, Adam Sachajdakiewicz, Izabela |
author_sort | Mędrzycki, Piotr |
collection | PubMed |
description | Species distribution models are scarcely applicable to invasive species because of their breaking of the models’ assumptions. So far, few mechanistic, semi-mechanistic or statistical solutions like dispersal constraints or propagule limitation have been applied. We evaluated a novel quasi-semi-mechanistic approach for regional scale models, using historical proximity variables (HPV) representing a state of the population in a given moment in the past. Our aim was to test the effects of addition of HPV sets of different minimal recentness, information capacity and the total number of variables on the quality of the species distribution model for Heracleum mantegazzianum on 116000 km(2) in Poland. As environmental predictors, we used fragments of 103 1×1 km, world- wide, free-access rasters from WorldGrids.org. Single and ensemble models were computed using BIOMOD2 package 3.1.47 working in R environment 3.1.0. The addition of HPV improved the quality of single and ensemble models from poor to good and excellent. The quality was the highest for the variants with HPVs based on the distance from the most recent past occurrences. It was mostly affected by the algorithm type, but all HPV traits (minimal recentness, information capacity, model type or the number of the time periods) were significantly important determinants. The addition of HPVs improved the quality of current projections, raising the occurrence probability in regions where the species had occurred before. We conclude that HPV addition enables semi-realistic estimation of the rate of spread and can be applied to the short-term forecasting of invasive or declining species, which also break equal-dispersal probability assumptions. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5604976 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-56049762017-09-28 Simple yet effective: Historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in Poland Mędrzycki, Piotr Jarzyna, Ingeborga Obidziński, Artur Tokarska-Guzik, Barbara Sotek, Zofia Pabjanek, Piotr Pytlarczyk, Adam Sachajdakiewicz, Izabela PLoS One Research Article Species distribution models are scarcely applicable to invasive species because of their breaking of the models’ assumptions. So far, few mechanistic, semi-mechanistic or statistical solutions like dispersal constraints or propagule limitation have been applied. We evaluated a novel quasi-semi-mechanistic approach for regional scale models, using historical proximity variables (HPV) representing a state of the population in a given moment in the past. Our aim was to test the effects of addition of HPV sets of different minimal recentness, information capacity and the total number of variables on the quality of the species distribution model for Heracleum mantegazzianum on 116000 km(2) in Poland. As environmental predictors, we used fragments of 103 1×1 km, world- wide, free-access rasters from WorldGrids.org. Single and ensemble models were computed using BIOMOD2 package 3.1.47 working in R environment 3.1.0. The addition of HPV improved the quality of single and ensemble models from poor to good and excellent. The quality was the highest for the variants with HPVs based on the distance from the most recent past occurrences. It was mostly affected by the algorithm type, but all HPV traits (minimal recentness, information capacity, model type or the number of the time periods) were significantly important determinants. The addition of HPVs improved the quality of current projections, raising the occurrence probability in regions where the species had occurred before. We conclude that HPV addition enables semi-realistic estimation of the rate of spread and can be applied to the short-term forecasting of invasive or declining species, which also break equal-dispersal probability assumptions. Public Library of Science 2017-09-19 /pmc/articles/PMC5604976/ /pubmed/28926580 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184677 Text en © 2017 Mędrzycki et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Mędrzycki, Piotr Jarzyna, Ingeborga Obidziński, Artur Tokarska-Guzik, Barbara Sotek, Zofia Pabjanek, Piotr Pytlarczyk, Adam Sachajdakiewicz, Izabela Simple yet effective: Historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in Poland |
title | Simple yet effective: Historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in Poland |
title_full | Simple yet effective: Historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in Poland |
title_fullStr | Simple yet effective: Historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in Poland |
title_full_unstemmed | Simple yet effective: Historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in Poland |
title_short | Simple yet effective: Historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (Heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in Poland |
title_sort | simple yet effective: historical proximity variables improve the species distribution models for invasive giant hogweed (heracleum mantegazzianum s.l.) in poland |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5604976/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28926580 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0184677 |
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