Quantitative FDG-PET/CT predicts local recurrence and survival for squamous cell carcinoma of the anus

PURPOSE: (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography–(PET)/computed tomography (CT) imaging is used for staging and treatment planning of patients with anal cancer. Quantitative pre- and posttreatment metrics that are predictive of recurrence are unknown. We evaluated the association between pre- and posttreatment FDG-PET/CT parameters and outcomes for patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA). METHODS AND MATERIALS: The records of 110 patients treated between 2003 and 2013 with definitive radiation therapy for SCCA were reviewed under an institutional review board–approved protocol. The median radiation therapy dose was 50.4 Gy (range, 35-60 Gy). Concurrent chemotherapy was administered for 109 of 110 patients and generally consisted of 5-fluorouracil and mitomycin C (n = 94). All patients underwent pretreatment FDG-PET/CT and 101 of 110 underwent posttreatment FDG-PET/CT 3 months after completion of radiation therapy. The maximum standard uptake value (SUV(max)) was analyzed, in addition to multiple patient and treatment factors, by univariate and multivariate Cox regression for correlation with local recurrence (LR) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: The median follow-up was 28.6 months. LR occurred in 1 of 15 (6.7%), 5 of 47 (10.6%), and 6 of 48 (12.5%) patients with stage I, II, and III disease, respectively. On univariate analysis, a significant association was observed between reduced LR and posttreatment SUV(max) <6.1 (P = .0095) and between increased OS and posttreatment SUV(max) <6.1 (P = .0086). On multivariate analysis, a significant association was observed between reduced LR and posttreatment SUV(max) <6.1 (P = .0013) and the use of intensity modulated radiation therapy (P < .001). A significant multivariate association was observed between increased OS and posttreatment SUV(max) <6.1 (P = .0373) and the use of 5-fluorouracil/mitomycin C chemotherapy (P = .001). CONCLUSION: Posttreatment SUV(max) <6.1 is associated with reduced LR and increased OS after chemoradiation therapy for SCCA independent of T and N stage on multivariate analysis. Greater follow-up is required to confirm this association with late patterns of failure.