Cargando…

External Validation of Pooled Cohort Risk Equations to Predict 1-Year Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke Patients

BACKGROUND: The present study aimed to validate the pooled cohort risk (PCR) equations in a Chinese ischemic stroke population and to explore its prognostic value in predicting stroke recurrence, coronary heart disease, and vascular death. MATERIAL/METHOD: Patients were selected from the China Natio...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Li, Haiyan, Zhang, Runhua, Liu, Gaifen, Liu, Liping, Wang, Yilong, Wang, Yongjun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: International Scientific Literature, Inc. 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5608150/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28902807
http://dx.doi.org/10.12659/MSM.903050
_version_ 1783265392049782784
author Li, Haiyan
Zhang, Runhua
Liu, Gaifen
Liu, Liping
Wang, Yilong
Wang, Yongjun
author_facet Li, Haiyan
Zhang, Runhua
Liu, Gaifen
Liu, Liping
Wang, Yilong
Wang, Yongjun
author_sort Li, Haiyan
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The present study aimed to validate the pooled cohort risk (PCR) equations in a Chinese ischemic stroke population and to explore its prognostic value in predicting stroke recurrence, coronary heart disease, and vascular death. MATERIAL/METHOD: Patients were selected from the China National Stroke Registry. The C statistic was used to examine the clinical prediction of the scores. To analyze the relevant risk factors, univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed. RESULTS: Out of a total of 22 216 patients, 8287 patients (including 7652 acute ischemic stroke [AIS] and 635 transient ischemic attack [TIA] patients) were selected and enrolled in the study. At 1-year follow-up, for stroke recurrence rate, the C statistic value was 0.584 in AIS patients and 0.573 in all patients. For non-fatal myocardial infarction, the C statistic value was 0.533 in AIS patients and 0.493 in all patients. For vascular death, the C statistic value was 0.592 in AIS patients and 0.592 in all patients. For all events, the C statistic value was 0.582 in AIS patients and 0.575 in all patients. For AIS patients, the 12-month cumulative rates for recurrent stroke, vascular death, and combined vascular events were higher in the high-PCR group (PCR ≥20%). CONCLUSIONS: Pooled cohort risk equations may serve as potential tools to predict and stratify the 1-year risk of recurrent stroke and combined vascular events in AIS/TIA patients in China.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-5608150
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2017
publisher International Scientific Literature, Inc.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-56081502017-09-27 External Validation of Pooled Cohort Risk Equations to Predict 1-Year Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke Patients Li, Haiyan Zhang, Runhua Liu, Gaifen Liu, Liping Wang, Yilong Wang, Yongjun Med Sci Monit Clinical Research BACKGROUND: The present study aimed to validate the pooled cohort risk (PCR) equations in a Chinese ischemic stroke population and to explore its prognostic value in predicting stroke recurrence, coronary heart disease, and vascular death. MATERIAL/METHOD: Patients were selected from the China National Stroke Registry. The C statistic was used to examine the clinical prediction of the scores. To analyze the relevant risk factors, univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed. RESULTS: Out of a total of 22 216 patients, 8287 patients (including 7652 acute ischemic stroke [AIS] and 635 transient ischemic attack [TIA] patients) were selected and enrolled in the study. At 1-year follow-up, for stroke recurrence rate, the C statistic value was 0.584 in AIS patients and 0.573 in all patients. For non-fatal myocardial infarction, the C statistic value was 0.533 in AIS patients and 0.493 in all patients. For vascular death, the C statistic value was 0.592 in AIS patients and 0.592 in all patients. For all events, the C statistic value was 0.582 in AIS patients and 0.575 in all patients. For AIS patients, the 12-month cumulative rates for recurrent stroke, vascular death, and combined vascular events were higher in the high-PCR group (PCR ≥20%). CONCLUSIONS: Pooled cohort risk equations may serve as potential tools to predict and stratify the 1-year risk of recurrent stroke and combined vascular events in AIS/TIA patients in China. International Scientific Literature, Inc. 2017-09-13 /pmc/articles/PMC5608150/ /pubmed/28902807 http://dx.doi.org/10.12659/MSM.903050 Text en © Med Sci Monit, 2017 This work is licensed under Creative Common Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) )
spellingShingle Clinical Research
Li, Haiyan
Zhang, Runhua
Liu, Gaifen
Liu, Liping
Wang, Yilong
Wang, Yongjun
External Validation of Pooled Cohort Risk Equations to Predict 1-Year Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke Patients
title External Validation of Pooled Cohort Risk Equations to Predict 1-Year Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke Patients
title_full External Validation of Pooled Cohort Risk Equations to Predict 1-Year Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke Patients
title_fullStr External Validation of Pooled Cohort Risk Equations to Predict 1-Year Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke Patients
title_full_unstemmed External Validation of Pooled Cohort Risk Equations to Predict 1-Year Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke Patients
title_short External Validation of Pooled Cohort Risk Equations to Predict 1-Year Clinical Outcome in Ischemic Stroke Patients
title_sort external validation of pooled cohort risk equations to predict 1-year clinical outcome in ischemic stroke patients
topic Clinical Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5608150/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28902807
http://dx.doi.org/10.12659/MSM.903050
work_keys_str_mv AT lihaiyan externalvalidationofpooledcohortriskequationstopredict1yearclinicaloutcomeinischemicstrokepatients
AT zhangrunhua externalvalidationofpooledcohortriskequationstopredict1yearclinicaloutcomeinischemicstrokepatients
AT liugaifen externalvalidationofpooledcohortriskequationstopredict1yearclinicaloutcomeinischemicstrokepatients
AT liuliping externalvalidationofpooledcohortriskequationstopredict1yearclinicaloutcomeinischemicstrokepatients
AT wangyilong externalvalidationofpooledcohortriskequationstopredict1yearclinicaloutcomeinischemicstrokepatients
AT wangyongjun externalvalidationofpooledcohortriskequationstopredict1yearclinicaloutcomeinischemicstrokepatients