From Culture-Medium-Based Models to Applications to Food: Predicting the Growth of B. cereus in Reconstituted Infant Formulae

Predictive models of the growth of foodborne organisms are commonly based on data generated in laboratory medium. It is a crucial question how to apply the predictions to realistic food scenarios. A simple approach is to assume that the bias factor, i.e., the ratio between the maximum specific growth rate in culture medium and the food in question is constant in the region of interest of the studied environmental variables. In this study, we investigate the validity of this assumption using two well-known link functions, the square-root and the natural logarithm, both having advantageous properties when modeling the variation of the maximum specific growth rate with temperature. The main difference between the two approaches appears in terms of the respective residuals as the temperature decreases to its minimum. The model organism was Bacillus cereus. Three strains (B594, B596, and F4810/72) were grown in Reconstituted Infant Formulae, while one of them (F4810/72) was grown also in culture medium to calculate the bias factor. Their growth parameters were estimated using viable count measurements at temperatures ranging from 12 to 25°C. We utilized the fact that, if the bias factor is independent of the temperature, then the minimum growth temperature parameter of the square-root model of Ratkowsky et al. (1982) is the same for culture medium and food. We concluded, supported also by mathematical analysis, that the Ratkowsky model works well but its rearrangement for the natural logarithm of the specific growth rate is more appropriate for practical regression. On the other hand, when analyzing mixed culture data, available in the ComBase database, we observed a trend different from the one generated by pure cultures. This suggests that the identity of the strains dominating the growth of mixed cultures depends on the temperature. Such analysis can increase the accuracy of predictive models, based on culture medium, to food scenarios, bringing significant saving for the food industry.