A nomogram predicting pathological complete response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer: implications for organ preservation strategies

PURPOSE: To determine predictors of pathological complete response (pCR) in locally advanced rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT), and develop a predictive nomogram. METHODS: A total of 522 locally advanced rectal cancer patients undergoing nCRT and curative resection between 2008 and 2014 were included. Uni- and multivariate analysis was performed to identify predictors of pCR. A nomogram was developed and validated by internal (n=425) and external validation (n=97). RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 55 months, pCR was associated with better 5-year overall and disease-free survival, distant control, but similar local control. Logistic regression showed that post-CRT distance from the anal verge (OR =0.840, P = 0.022), post-CRT tumor size (OR = 0.565, P = 0.003), post-CRT circumferential extent of tumor (OR = 0.021, P < 0.001), pre-CRT CEA level (OR = 2.004, P = 0.033), and post-CRT CEA level (OR = 3.767, P = 0.038) were independently associated with pCR. A nomogram was developed with a C-index of 0.81 and 0.75 on internal and external validation, respectively. CONCLUSION: pCR was associated with better long-term outcome. A nomogram was successfully developed to predict pCR. It could support decision-making in organ preservation strategies.