Effects of increasing the PSA cutoff to perform additional biomarker tests before prostate biopsy

BACKGROUND: Multi-step testing might enhance performance of the prostate cancer diagnostic pipeline. Using PSA >1 ng/ml for first-line risk stratification and the Stockholm 3 Model (S3M) blood-test >10% risk of Gleason Score > 7 prostate cancer to inform biopsy decisions has been suggested. We aimed to determine the effects of changing the PSA cutoff to perform reflex testing with S3M and the subsequent S3M cutoff to recommend prostate biopsy while maintaining the sensitivity to detect Gleason Score ≥ 7 prostate cancer. METHODS: We used data from the prospective, population-based, paired, diagnostic Stockholm 3 (STHLM3) study with participants invited by date of birth from the Swedish Population Register during 2012–2014. All participants underwent testing with PSA and S3M (a combination of plasma protein biomarkers [PSA, free PSA, intact PSA, hK2, MSMB, MIC1], genetic polymorphisms, and clinical variables [age, family, history, previous prostate biopsy, prostate exam]). Of 47,688 men in the STHLM3 main study, we used data from 3133 men with S3M >10% and prostate biopsy data. Logistic regression models were used to calculate prostate cancer detection rates and proportion saved biopsies. RESULTS: 44.2%, 62.5% and 67.9% of the participants had PSA <1, <1.5 and <1.7 ng/ml, respectively. Increasing the PSA cut-off for additional work-up from 1 ng/ml to 1.5 ng/ml would thus save 18.3% of the performed tests, 4.9% of the biopsies and 1.3% (10/765) of Gleason Grade ≥ 7 cancers would be un-detected. By lowering the S3M cutoff to recommend biopsy, sensitivity to high-grade prostate cancer can be restored, to the cost of increasing the number of performed biopsies modestly. CONCLUSION: The sensitivity to detect prostate cancer can be maintained when using different PSA cutoffs to perform additional testing. Biomarker cut-offs have implications on number of tests and prostate biopsies performed. A PSA cutoff of 1.5 ng/ml to perform additional testing such as the S3M test might be considered. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN84445406.