Combination HIV Prevention and HIV Incidence in Uganda

BACKGROUND: To assess the impact of combination HIV prevention (CHP) on HIV incidence, we analyzed the association between HIV incidence and scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and medical male circumcision in Rakai, Uganda. Changes in population-level viral load suppression and sexual behaviors were also examined. METHODS: Between 1999 and 2016, data were collected through 12 surveys from 30 communities in the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open population-based cohort of persons aged 15-49 years. We assessed HIV incidence trends based on observed seroconversion data, self-reported ART and male circumcision coverage, viral load suppression, and sexual behaviors. RESULTS: In total, 33,937 study participants contributed 103,011 person-visits (HIV prevalence ~13%). Follow-up of 17,870 HIV-negative persons contributed 94,427 person-years with 931 seroconversions. ART was introduced in 2004; by 2016 coverage was 69% (72% in women vs. 61% in men, p<0.001). HIV viral load suppression among all HIV-positive persons increased from 42% in 2009 to 75% by 2016 (p<0.001). Male circumcision coverage increased from 15% in 1999 to 59% by 2016 (p<0.001). Persons 15-19 years reporting n 71 ever having sex increased from 30% to 55% (p<0.0001). HIV incidence declined by 42% in 2016 relative to the pre-CHP period prior to 2010 (1.17/100 py to 0.66/100 py; adjIRR:0.58: 95%CI: 0.45-0.76); declines were greater in men (adjIRR=0.46; 95%CI: 0.29-0.73) than women (adjIRR=0.68, 95%CI: 0.50-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: In this longitudinal study, HIV incidence significantly declined with CHP scale-up, providing empiric evidence that HIV control interventions can have substantial population-level impact. However, additional efforts are needed to overcome gender disparities and achieve HIV elimination.