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Modelling the implications of stopping vector control for malaria control and elimination
BACKGROUND: Increasing coverage of malaria vector control interventions globally has led to significant reductions in disease burden. However due to its high recurrent cost, there is a need to determine if and when vector control can be safely scaled back after transmission has been reduced. METHODS...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2017
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5640964/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29029609 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12936-017-2051-1 |
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author | Yukich, Joshua O. Chitnis, Nakul |
author_facet | Yukich, Joshua O. Chitnis, Nakul |
author_sort | Yukich, Joshua O. |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Increasing coverage of malaria vector control interventions globally has led to significant reductions in disease burden. However due to its high recurrent cost, there is a need to determine if and when vector control can be safely scaled back after transmission has been reduced. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology was simulated to determine the impact of scaling back vector control on transmission and disease. A regression analysis of simulation results was conducted to derive predicted probabilities of resurgence, severity of resurgence and time to resurgence under various settings. Results indicate that, in the absence of secular changes in transmission, there are few scenarios where vector control can be removed without high expectation of resurgence. These, potentially safe, scenarios are characterized by low historic entomological inoculation rates, successful vector control programmes that achieve elimination or near elimination, and effective surveillance systems with high coverage and effective treatment of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: Programmes and funding agencies considering scaling back or withdrawing vector control from previously malaria endemic areas need to first carefully consider current receptivity and other available interventions in a risk assessment. Surveillance for resurgence needs to be continuously conducted over a long period of time in order to ensure a rapid response should vector control be withdrawn. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-2051-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-5640964 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2017 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-56409642017-10-18 Modelling the implications of stopping vector control for malaria control and elimination Yukich, Joshua O. Chitnis, Nakul Malar J Research BACKGROUND: Increasing coverage of malaria vector control interventions globally has led to significant reductions in disease burden. However due to its high recurrent cost, there is a need to determine if and when vector control can be safely scaled back after transmission has been reduced. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology was simulated to determine the impact of scaling back vector control on transmission and disease. A regression analysis of simulation results was conducted to derive predicted probabilities of resurgence, severity of resurgence and time to resurgence under various settings. Results indicate that, in the absence of secular changes in transmission, there are few scenarios where vector control can be removed without high expectation of resurgence. These, potentially safe, scenarios are characterized by low historic entomological inoculation rates, successful vector control programmes that achieve elimination or near elimination, and effective surveillance systems with high coverage and effective treatment of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: Programmes and funding agencies considering scaling back or withdrawing vector control from previously malaria endemic areas need to first carefully consider current receptivity and other available interventions in a risk assessment. Surveillance for resurgence needs to be continuously conducted over a long period of time in order to ensure a rapid response should vector control be withdrawn. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-017-2051-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. BioMed Central 2017-10-13 /pmc/articles/PMC5640964/ /pubmed/29029609 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12936-017-2051-1 Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated. |
spellingShingle | Research Yukich, Joshua O. Chitnis, Nakul Modelling the implications of stopping vector control for malaria control and elimination |
title | Modelling the implications of stopping vector control for malaria control and elimination |
title_full | Modelling the implications of stopping vector control for malaria control and elimination |
title_fullStr | Modelling the implications of stopping vector control for malaria control and elimination |
title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the implications of stopping vector control for malaria control and elimination |
title_short | Modelling the implications of stopping vector control for malaria control and elimination |
title_sort | modelling the implications of stopping vector control for malaria control and elimination |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5640964/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29029609 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12936-017-2051-1 |
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