Nomogram for prediction of level 2 axillary lymph node metastasis in proven level 1 node-positive breast cancer patients

BACKGROUND: The current management of the axilla in level 1 node-positive breast cancer patients is axillary lymph node dissection regardless of the status of the level 2 axillary lymph nodes. The goal of this study was to develop a nomogram predicting the probability of level 2 axillary lymph node metastasis (L-2-ALNM) in patients with level 1 axillary node-positive breast cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We reviewed the records of 974 patients with pathology-confirmed level 1 node-positive breast cancer between 2010 and 2014 at the Liaoning Cancer Hospital and Institute. The patients were randomized 1:1 and divided into a modeling group and a validation group. Clinical and pathological features of the patients were assessed with uni- and multivariate logistic regression. A nomogram based on independent predictors for the L-2-ALNM identified by multivariate logistic regression was constructed. RESULTS: Independent predictors of L-2-ALNM by the multivariate logistic regression analysis included tumor size, Ki-67 status, histological grade, and number of positive level 1 axillary lymph nodes. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the modeling set and the validation set were 0.828 and 0.816, respectively. The false-negative rates of the L-2-ALNM nomogram were 1.82% and 7.41% for the predicted probability cut-off points of < 6% and < 10%, respectively, when applied to the validation group. CONCLUSIONS: Our nomogram could help predict L-2-ALNM in patients with level 1 axillary lymph node metastasis. Patients with a low probability of L-2-ALNM could be spared level 2 axillary lymph node dissection, thereby reducing postoperative morbidity.