Out-migration and attrition of physicians and dentists before and after EU accession (2003 and 2011): the case of Hungary

This paper employs a large-scale, individual-level, panel dataset to analyse the effect of EU accession on the probability of out-migration on the part of Hungarian physicians and dentists between 2003 and 2011. The study uses event history modelling and competing risk models. The results show that EU accession did not at the time affect the probability of out-migration while after the end of the transitional period of restrictions on the free movement of labour from the new EU member states to Austria and Germany, the probability of doctors’ migration increased considerably. Relative wages and peer pressure also exercise a significant role in the out-migration decisions of young medical doctors. We also find that more than half of those medical doctors who left the country during the observation period returned some time later. The data furthermore suggest a massive flow of doctors to domestic jobs outside the health care system.