Apparent diffusion coefficient histogram analysis can evaluate radiation-induced parotid damage and predict late xerostomia degree in nasopharyngeal carcinoma

We investigated apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) histogram analysis to evaluate radiation-induced parotid damage and predict xerostomia degrees in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients receiving radiotherapy. The imaging of bilateral parotid glands in NPC patients was conducted 2 weeks before radiotherapy (time point 1), one month after radiotherapy (time point 2), and four months after radiotherapy (time point 3). From time point 1 to 2, parotid volume, skewness, and kurtosis decreased (P < 0.001, = 0.001, and < 0.001, respectively), but all other ADC histogram parameters increased (all P < 0.001, except P = 0.006 for standard deviation [SD]). From time point 2 to 3, parotid volume continued to decrease (P = 0.022), and SD, 75(th) and 90(th) percentiles continued to increase (P = 0.024, 0.010, and 0.006, respectively). Early change rates of parotid ADC(mean), ADC(min), kurtosis, and 25(th), 50(th), 75(th), 90(th) percentiles (from time point 1 to 2) correlated with late parotid atrophy rate (from time point 1 to 3) (all P < 0.05). Multiple linear regression analysis revealed correlations among parotid volume, time point, and ADC histogram parameters. Early mean change rates for bilateral parotid SD and ADC(max) could predict late xerostomia degrees at seven months after radiotherapy (three months after time point 3) with AUC of 0.781 and 0.818 (P = 0.014, 0.005, respectively). ADC histogram parameters were reproducible (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.830 - 0.999). ADC histogram analysis could be used to evaluate radiation-induced parotid damage noninvasively, and predict late xerostomia degrees of NPC patients treated with radiotherapy.