Protocol for a prospective longitudinal study of risk factors for hypertension incidence in a Mexico City population: the Tlalpan 2020 cohort

INTRODUCTION: Systemic hypertension (HTN) is a common risk factor for cardiovascular disease. In Mexico, HTN prevalence has increased over time and is currently 31%. Nonetheless, information about the country's HTN incidence and its associated risk factors is scarce. Understanding this condition is a priority for identifying the scope of primary prevention. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of traditional and non-traditional risk factors on the incidence of HTN in a cohort of healthy Mexico City residents under biannual follow-up for 10 years. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A prospective longitudinal study is proposed in which clinically healthy residents of Mexico City between 20 and 50 years old will be recruited; the participants will be evaluated every 2 years over a period of 10 years or until they develop HTN. Evaluations regarding sociodemographic, clinical, anthropometric, biochemical, diet, physical activity, stress, sleep quality, alcohol and tobacco consumption factors will be performed. The participants will be recruited from the 16 municipalities of Mexico City through promotional strategies aimed at the community and will be clinically evaluated at a tertiary care institution, Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez (National Institute of Cardiology Ignacio Chavez), located in Mexico City, Mexico. Sample size estimated for this study is 3436, and the Cox proportional hazards model will be used to estimate HRs for the association between explanatory variables and HTN using both raw and adjusted data. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Institutional Bioethics Committee of the Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez (National Institute of Cardiology Ignacio Chavez) under number 13-802. Findings from this study will be disseminated through scientific papers and research conferences.