Impact of health insurance coverage for Helicobacter pylori gastritis on the trends in eradication therapy in Japan: retrospective observational study and simulation study based on real-world data

OBJECTIVES: To explore the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in Japan and the trends of its eradication therapy before and after the changes of the insurance coverage policy, first started in 2000, and expanded to cover H. pylori-positive gastritis in 2013. The impacts that the changes brought were estimated. METHODS: In this retrospective observational study and simulation study based on health insurance claims data, product sales data and relevant studies, individuals who received triple therapy (amoxicillin, clarithromycin, proton-pump inhibitors or potassium-competitive acid blockers) were defined as the first-time patients for H. pylori eradication in two Japanese health insurance claims databases (from approximately 1.6 million and 10.5 million individuals). Each sales data of eradication packages and examination kits were used to estimate the number of H. pylori-eradicated individuals nationwide. The prevalence of H. pylori infection, including the future rate, was predicted using previous studies and the estimated population trend by a national institute. Cases completed prior to the policy change on insurance coverage were simulated to estimate what would have happened had there been no change in the policy. RESULTS: The numbers of patients first received eradication therapy were 81 119 and 170 993 from two databases. The nationwide estimated number of patients successfully eradicated was approximately 650 000 per year between 2001 and 2012, whereas it rapidly rose to 1 380-000 per year in 2013. The estimated prevalence of infection in 2050 is 5%, this rate was estimated to be 28% and 22% if the policy changes had not occurred in 2000 and 2013, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of policy changes for H. pylori eradication therapy on the prevalence of infection was shown. The results suggest that insurance coverage expansion may also reduce the prevalence in other countries with a high prevalence of H. pylori infection if the reinfection is low.