Cargando…

Changing US Population Demographics: What Does This Mean for Listeriosis Incidence and Exposure?

Listeria monocytogenes is an important cause of foodborne illness hospitalization, fetal loss, and death in the United States. Listeriosis incidence rate varies significantly among population subgroups with pregnant women, older persons, and the Hispanic population having increased relative risks co...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Pohl, Aurelie M., Pouillot, Régis, Van Doren, Jane M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5646752/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28632414
http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/fpd.2017.2297
_version_ 1783272139043897344
author Pohl, Aurelie M.
Pouillot, Régis
Van Doren, Jane M.
author_facet Pohl, Aurelie M.
Pouillot, Régis
Van Doren, Jane M.
author_sort Pohl, Aurelie M.
collection PubMed
description Listeria monocytogenes is an important cause of foodborne illness hospitalization, fetal loss, and death in the United States. Listeriosis incidence rate varies significantly among population subgroups with pregnant women, older persons, and the Hispanic population having increased relative risks compared with the other subpopulations. Using estimated rates of listeriosis per subpopulation based on FoodNet data from 2004 to 2009, we evaluate the expected number of cases and incidence rates of listeriosis in the US population and the pregnant women subpopulation as the demographic composition changes over time with respect to ethnicity, pregnancy status, and age distribution. If the incidence rate per subpopulation is held constant, the overall US population listeriosis incidence rate would increase from 0.25 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.19–0.34) in 2010 to 0.28 (95% CI: 0.22–0.38) in 2020 and 0.32 (95% CI: 0.25–0.43) in 2030, because of the changes in the population structure. Similarly, the pregnancy-associated incidence rate is expected to increase from 4.0 per 100,000 pregnant women (95% CI: 2.5–6.5) in 2010 to 4.1 (95% CI: 2.6–6.7) in 2020 and 4.4 (95% CI: 2.7–7.2) in 2030 as the proportion of Hispanic pregnant women increases. We further estimate that a reduction of 12% in the exposure of the US population to L. monocytogenes would be needed to maintain a constant incidence rate from 2010 to 2020 (current trend), assuming infectivity (strain virulence distribution and individual susceptibility) is unchanged. To reduce the overall US population incidence rate by one-third (Healthy People 2020 goal) would require a reduction in exposure (or infectivity) to L. monocytogenes of 48% over the same time period. Reduction/elimination in exposure of pregnant and Hispanic subpopulations alone could not meet this target. This information may be useful in setting public health targets, developing risk management options, and in interpreting trends in the public health burden of foodborne listeriosis in the United States.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-5646752
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2017
publisher Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-56467522017-10-27 Changing US Population Demographics: What Does This Mean for Listeriosis Incidence and Exposure? Pohl, Aurelie M. Pouillot, Régis Van Doren, Jane M. Foodborne Pathog Dis Original Articles Listeria monocytogenes is an important cause of foodborne illness hospitalization, fetal loss, and death in the United States. Listeriosis incidence rate varies significantly among population subgroups with pregnant women, older persons, and the Hispanic population having increased relative risks compared with the other subpopulations. Using estimated rates of listeriosis per subpopulation based on FoodNet data from 2004 to 2009, we evaluate the expected number of cases and incidence rates of listeriosis in the US population and the pregnant women subpopulation as the demographic composition changes over time with respect to ethnicity, pregnancy status, and age distribution. If the incidence rate per subpopulation is held constant, the overall US population listeriosis incidence rate would increase from 0.25 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.19–0.34) in 2010 to 0.28 (95% CI: 0.22–0.38) in 2020 and 0.32 (95% CI: 0.25–0.43) in 2030, because of the changes in the population structure. Similarly, the pregnancy-associated incidence rate is expected to increase from 4.0 per 100,000 pregnant women (95% CI: 2.5–6.5) in 2010 to 4.1 (95% CI: 2.6–6.7) in 2020 and 4.4 (95% CI: 2.7–7.2) in 2030 as the proportion of Hispanic pregnant women increases. We further estimate that a reduction of 12% in the exposure of the US population to L. monocytogenes would be needed to maintain a constant incidence rate from 2010 to 2020 (current trend), assuming infectivity (strain virulence distribution and individual susceptibility) is unchanged. To reduce the overall US population incidence rate by one-third (Healthy People 2020 goal) would require a reduction in exposure (or infectivity) to L. monocytogenes of 48% over the same time period. Reduction/elimination in exposure of pregnant and Hispanic subpopulations alone could not meet this target. This information may be useful in setting public health targets, developing risk management options, and in interpreting trends in the public health burden of foodborne listeriosis in the United States. Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. 2017-09-01 2017-09-01 /pmc/articles/PMC5646752/ /pubmed/28632414 http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/fpd.2017.2297 Text en © Aurelie M. Pohl et al. 2017; Published by Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. offers reprint services for those who want to order professionally produced copies of articles published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license. To obtain a price quote, email: Reprints@liebertpub.com. Please include the article's title or DOI, quantity, and delivery destination in your email.
spellingShingle Original Articles
Pohl, Aurelie M.
Pouillot, Régis
Van Doren, Jane M.
Changing US Population Demographics: What Does This Mean for Listeriosis Incidence and Exposure?
title Changing US Population Demographics: What Does This Mean for Listeriosis Incidence and Exposure?
title_full Changing US Population Demographics: What Does This Mean for Listeriosis Incidence and Exposure?
title_fullStr Changing US Population Demographics: What Does This Mean for Listeriosis Incidence and Exposure?
title_full_unstemmed Changing US Population Demographics: What Does This Mean for Listeriosis Incidence and Exposure?
title_short Changing US Population Demographics: What Does This Mean for Listeriosis Incidence and Exposure?
title_sort changing us population demographics: what does this mean for listeriosis incidence and exposure?
topic Original Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5646752/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28632414
http://dx.doi.org/10.1089/fpd.2017.2297
work_keys_str_mv AT pohlaureliem changinguspopulationdemographicswhatdoesthismeanforlisteriosisincidenceandexposure
AT pouillotregis changinguspopulationdemographicswhatdoesthismeanforlisteriosisincidenceandexposure
AT vandorenjanem changinguspopulationdemographicswhatdoesthismeanforlisteriosisincidenceandexposure