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Nomogram for Predicting Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study

Cardiovascular mortality risk is high for peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients but it varies considerably among individuals. There is no clinical tool to predict cardiovascular mortality for PD patients yet. Therefore, we developed a cardiovascular mortality risk nomogram in a PD patient cohort. We der...

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Autores principales: Xia, Xi, Zhao, Chen, Luo, Qimei, Zhou, Qian, Lin, Zhenchuan, Guo, Xiaobo, Wang, Xueqin, Lin, Jianxiong, Yang, Xiao, Yu, Xueqing, Huang, Fengxian
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2017
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5654762/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29066841
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14489-4
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author Xia, Xi
Zhao, Chen
Luo, Qimei
Zhou, Qian
Lin, Zhenchuan
Guo, Xiaobo
Wang, Xueqin
Lin, Jianxiong
Yang, Xiao
Yu, Xueqing
Huang, Fengxian
author_facet Xia, Xi
Zhao, Chen
Luo, Qimei
Zhou, Qian
Lin, Zhenchuan
Guo, Xiaobo
Wang, Xueqin
Lin, Jianxiong
Yang, Xiao
Yu, Xueqing
Huang, Fengxian
author_sort Xia, Xi
collection PubMed
description Cardiovascular mortality risk is high for peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients but it varies considerably among individuals. There is no clinical tool to predict cardiovascular mortality for PD patients yet. Therefore, we developed a cardiovascular mortality risk nomogram in a PD patient cohort. We derived and internally validated the nomogram in incident adult PD patients randomly assigned to a training (N = 918) or a validation (N = 460) dataset. The nomogram was built using the LASSO Cox regression model. Increasing age, history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes were consistent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. Low hemoglobin and serum albumin, high hypersensitive C-reactive protein and decreasing 24 hours urine output were identified as non-traditional cardiovascular risk predictors. In the validation dataset, the above nomogram performed good discrimination (1 year c-statistic = 0.83; 3 year c-statistic = 0.78) and calibration. This tool can classify patients between those at high risk of cardiovascular mortality (high-risk group) and those of low risk (low-risk group). Cardiovascular mortality was significantly different in the internal validation set of patients for the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group (HR 3.77, 2.14–6.64; p < 0.001). This novel nomogram can accurately predict cardiovascular mortality risk in incident PD patients.
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spelling pubmed-56547622017-10-31 Nomogram for Predicting Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study Xia, Xi Zhao, Chen Luo, Qimei Zhou, Qian Lin, Zhenchuan Guo, Xiaobo Wang, Xueqin Lin, Jianxiong Yang, Xiao Yu, Xueqing Huang, Fengxian Sci Rep Article Cardiovascular mortality risk is high for peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients but it varies considerably among individuals. There is no clinical tool to predict cardiovascular mortality for PD patients yet. Therefore, we developed a cardiovascular mortality risk nomogram in a PD patient cohort. We derived and internally validated the nomogram in incident adult PD patients randomly assigned to a training (N = 918) or a validation (N = 460) dataset. The nomogram was built using the LASSO Cox regression model. Increasing age, history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes were consistent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. Low hemoglobin and serum albumin, high hypersensitive C-reactive protein and decreasing 24 hours urine output were identified as non-traditional cardiovascular risk predictors. In the validation dataset, the above nomogram performed good discrimination (1 year c-statistic = 0.83; 3 year c-statistic = 0.78) and calibration. This tool can classify patients between those at high risk of cardiovascular mortality (high-risk group) and those of low risk (low-risk group). Cardiovascular mortality was significantly different in the internal validation set of patients for the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group (HR 3.77, 2.14–6.64; p < 0.001). This novel nomogram can accurately predict cardiovascular mortality risk in incident PD patients. Nature Publishing Group UK 2017-10-24 /pmc/articles/PMC5654762/ /pubmed/29066841 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14489-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Xia, Xi
Zhao, Chen
Luo, Qimei
Zhou, Qian
Lin, Zhenchuan
Guo, Xiaobo
Wang, Xueqin
Lin, Jianxiong
Yang, Xiao
Yu, Xueqing
Huang, Fengxian
Nomogram for Predicting Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study
title Nomogram for Predicting Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study
title_full Nomogram for Predicting Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study
title_fullStr Nomogram for Predicting Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study
title_full_unstemmed Nomogram for Predicting Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study
title_short Nomogram for Predicting Cardiovascular Mortality in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: An Observational Study
title_sort nomogram for predicting cardiovascular mortality in incident peritoneal dialysis patients: an observational study
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5654762/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29066841
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-14489-4
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